Mumbai, India – The global silver market is witnessing an extraordinary phenomenon, with the London 1-month silver lease rate rocketing to an extreme 39.2% on October 9, 2025, according to an update from Bruce Ikemuzo, Chief Director of the Japan Bullion Market Association (JBMA). This alarming surge, indicative of "London Metal Delivery Distress," underscores a deepening physical scarcity that is reverberating across international markets, with a pronounced impact on India's bustling silver economy.

What the Skyrocketing Lease Rate Means

A silver lease rate represents the cost of borrowing physical silver. When this rate spikes to such extreme levels, it signals a critical shortage of readily available metal for immediate delivery in the London market, a key global hub for precious metals trading. It implies that holders of physical silver are increasingly reluctant to lend their metal, demanding a substantial premium for its temporary use. This situation is often a precursor to significant price volatility and market dislocations.

Global Factors Driving the Scarcity

Several interconnected factors are contributing to this global squeeze on physical silver:

• Depleted Inventories: London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults are reportedly facing critically low stockpiles of physical silver.
• Surging Industrial Demand: Silver's dual role as both a precious and an industrial metal means strong demand from sectors like electronics, solar panels, and electric vehicles is consuming a significant portion of global supply. Mine production has struggled to keep pace with this robust industrial appetite.
• Heightened Investment Interest: Global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and concerns over inflation are driving investors towards safe-haven assets, including silver. Silver ETFs worldwide have seen record inflows, reflecting this strong investment momentum.
• Market Dislocations and Tariffs: Discrepancies between New York futures prices and London spot prices have prompted a rush to ship silver to the US to exploit arbitrage opportunities, further draining London's reserves. Additionally, concerns over potential US tariffs on silver have reduced the metal available for leasing in London.
• "Paper" vs. Physical Disparity: The market is grappling with a significant imbalance, where the amount of "paper" silver (futures contracts) far exceeds the available physical metal, creating stress in fulfilling delivery obligations.

Acute Impact on India's Silver Market

The repercussions of this global physical crunch are particularly severe for India, one of the world's largest silver consumers.

Record Prices and Premiums Indian silver prices have soared to unprecedented levels, mirroring the international trend. On October 10, 2025, silver prices breached ₹1.77 lakh per kilogram in some regions and averaged ₹1,70,000 per kilogram nationwide. Local silver futures had already reached an all-time high of ₹129,878 per kilogram. This surge has seen silver prices increase by nearly 49% in 2025, outperforming gold's 44% gain.

Physical Shortage and Delivery Delays India is currently facing a significant shortage of physical silver, leading to bulk delivery delays of 7-12 days. Bullion dealers report that premiums over official domestic rates have jumped by up to 10% as strong investment demand clashes with limited supplies, especially ahead of the crucial festive season.

ETF Premiums Signal Distress The physical scarcity is also evident in the domestic silver Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) market. As of October 9, several Indian silver ETFs were trading at substantial premiums, ranging from 12% to an astonishing 18% over their Indicative Net Asset Value (iNAV). This indicates a disconnect between the ETF price and the underlying physical silver's value, driven by a shortage of physical metal available to back new ETF units. In a significant development, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company temporarily suspended new lump-sum investments into its Silver ETF Fund of Fund until October 10, 2025, citing the physical silver shortage in the domestic market.

Driving Forces in India India's robust demand for silver stems from multiple sources:

• Festive and Wedding Season: The approaching festive and wedding season, particularly in Southern markets, is a primary driver of physical silver demand.
• Industrial Consumption: Growing industrial applications, especially in electronics and solar sectors, continue to underpin demand.
• Investment Appetite: Indian investors are increasingly turning to silver as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, leading to record inflows into silver ETFs. India's silver imports are expected to revive strongly in 2025, reaching 5,500-6,000 metric tons.

Outlook for Indian Investors While analysts maintain a stable-to-bullish outlook for silver, supported by global fundamentals and strong domestic demand, investors are advised to exercise caution. The elevated premiums on silver ETFs highlight the risks associated with the current supply imbalance. Experts suggest that while physical silver might be suitable for long-term holding, investors in ETFs should be aware of potential tracking risks if premiums collapse. The current surge underscores silver's potential for continued outperformance, but its inherent volatility also calls for a measured approach.

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