What happens after NSE stocks hit a 52-week high or cross the 200-day average?
A Flash Finance study of every fresh 52-week high, 52-week low and 200-day moving-average crossover on NSE from 2012 to 2026, and what the stock did over the next 1, 3, 6 and 12 months compared with the average stock on the same day. Methodology, limitations and the full results table (CSV) are below.
Key findings
- Fresh 52-week high: over the next 12 months these stocks outperformed the average stock on the same date by 4.4 percentage points (3 months: +1.8), and beat the typical (median) stock 53% of the time, against 50% for a random pick. 7,373 events across 1,346 stocks.
- Fresh 52-week low: over the next 12 months these stocks underperformed the average stock on the same date by 5.3 percentage points (3 months: -1.9), and beat the typical (median) stock 46% of the time, against 50% for a random pick. 4,361 events across 1,240 stocks.
- Crossed above 200-DMA: over the next 12 months these stocks underperformed the average stock on the same date by 3.1 percentage points (3 months: -1.0), and beat the typical (median) stock 47% of the time, against 50% for a random pick. 16,972 events across 1,453 stocks.
- Crossed below 200-DMA: over the next 12 months these stocks underperformed the average stock on the same date by 3.0 percentage points (3 months: -0.8), and beat the typical (median) stock 47% of the time, against 50% for a random pick. 17,629 events across 1,515 stocks.
Every event is compared with all eligible NSE stocks on the same date, two ways: against the average stock (does the event add return on average?) and against the median stock (how often does the typical event win? A random pick beats the median 50% of the time). Two benchmarks are needed because stock returns are skewed: over 12 months the average stock in this sample returned 25.21% but the typical one 6.54%. These are historical averages, not predictions for any single stock.
Average return vs the same-day average stock, by horizon (percentage points)
Fresh 52-week high 7,373
| Horizon | Events | Avg return | Median | % positive | Avg vs same-day average | Median vs same-day median | % beating median stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 7,373 | +3.0% | +1.5% | 55.5% | +0.9 pts | +0.8 pts | 53.3% |
| 3 months | 7,157 | +8.1% | +4.2% | 58.9% | +1.8 pts | +1.5 pts | 53.2% |
| 6 months | 6,831 | +15.1% | +7.8% | 61.3% | +2.4 pts | +1.8 pts | 53.0% |
| 12 months | 6,519 | +32.2% | +15.8% | 64.2% | +4.4 pts | +3.1 pts | 53.3% |
By market regime, 12 months: broad uptrend +3.6 pts vs the average stock, beat the median stock 52.3% of the time (5,660 events); broad downtrend +9.6 pts vs the average stock, beat the median stock 59.8% of the time (859 events).
Fresh 52-week low 4,361
| Horizon | Events | Avg return | Median | % positive | Avg vs same-day average | Median vs same-day median | % beating median stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 4,361 | +0.5% | +0.6% | 52.7% | -0.9 pts | -0.2 pts | 49.0% |
| 3 months | 4,282 | +3.8% | +1.9% | 54.3% | -1.9 pts | -0.9 pts | 47.3% |
| 6 months | 4,172 | +8.4% | +3.8% | 56.4% | -3.3 pts | -1.8 pts | 46.5% |
| 12 months | 3,526 | +19.9% | +7.2% | 56.9% | -5.3 pts | -3.9 pts | 45.7% |
By market regime, 12 months: broad uptrend -9.7 pts vs the average stock, beat the median stock 42.4% of the time (1,216 events); broad downtrend -3.0 pts vs the average stock, beat the median stock 47.4% of the time (2,310 events).
Crossed above 200-DMA 16,972
| Horizon | Events | Avg return | Median | % positive | Avg vs same-day average | Median vs same-day median | % beating median stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 16,971 | +0.9% | -0.1% | 49.3% | -0.8 pts | -0.6 pts | 46.8% |
| 3 months | 16,552 | +3.5% | +0.3% | 50.7% | -1.0 pts | -1.0 pts | 47.0% |
| 6 months | 15,654 | +7.9% | +1.6% | 52.8% | -1.5 pts | -1.4 pts | 47.1% |
| 12 months | 14,336 | +20.6% | +6.9% | 57.0% | -3.1 pts | -2.2 pts | 47.4% |
By market regime, 12 months: broad uptrend -4.2 pts vs the average stock, beat the median stock 46.6% of the time (9,728 events); broad downtrend -0.6 pts vs the average stock, beat the median stock 49.2% of the time (4,608 events).
Crossed below 200-DMA 17,629
| Horizon | Events | Avg return | Median | % positive | Avg vs same-day average | Median vs same-day median | % beating median stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 17,629 | +0.9% | +0.0% | 50.0% | -0.5 pts | -0.2 pts | 48.9% |
| 3 months | 17,221 | +3.6% | +0.7% | 51.7% | -0.8 pts | -0.5 pts | 48.3% |
| 6 months | 16,530 | +8.0% | +1.8% | 53.1% | -1.3 pts | -1.0 pts | 47.9% |
| 12 months | 14,971 | +19.8% | +6.6% | 56.8% | -3.0 pts | -2.2 pts | 47.1% |
By market regime, 12 months: broad uptrend -4.7 pts vs the average stock, beat the median stock 45.9% of the time (9,628 events); broad downtrend +0.0 pts vs the average stock, beat the median stock 49.3% of the time (5,343 events).
Year by year: 3-month return vs the same-day average stock (percentage points)
| Year | Fresh 52-week high | Fresh 52-week low | Crossed above 200-DMA | Crossed below 200-DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | +3.3 | -1.0 | -2.2 | -1.3 |
| 2013 | +6.0 | -5.3 | -2.6 | -2.2 |
| 2014 | -2.0 | -5.2 | -1.7 | -3.5 |
| 2015 | +3.6 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| 2016 | +1.8 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.2 |
| 2017 | +3.3 | -4.5 | -1.3 | -1.8 |
| 2018 | +1.9 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.1 |
| 2019 | +3.9 | -1.6 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | +1.5 | -2.1 | -1.2 | -1.5 |
| 2021 | -0.6 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -2.2 |
| 2022 | +4.2 | -1.3 | +0.5 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | +0.7 | -3.5 | -1.7 | -1.4 |
| 2024 | +0.9 | -1.1 | +0.0 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | +3.3 | -1.1 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 2026 | +2.8 | -2.5 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
Methodology
- Universe: all NSE-listed stocks in the Flash Finance price history (2,839 symbols), daily closes.
- Eligible stock-day: close of at least ₹10, a 20-session average traded value of at least ₹1 crore, and at least 260 sessions of history.
- Fresh 52-week high/low: close above (below) every close of the prior 250 sessions, with no other such signal in the previous 60 sessions, so a run of new highs counts once.
- 200-DMA crossover: the close moves from at or below its 200-day simple moving average to above it (or the reverse), with a 20-session cooldown.
- Returns: close-to-close over 20, 60, 120 and 250 trading sessions after the event day, before costs and taxes.
- Benchmarks: the average and the median forward return of all eligible stocks on the same date (at least 50 stocks). Subtracting them removes market-wide rallies and crashes, so only what the event adds is left. "% beating median stock" has a no-edge value of exactly 50%.
- Regime: "broad uptrend" when more than half of eligible stocks were above their own 200-DMA on the event day.
Limitations
- Survivorship bias. Companies that were delisted are mostly missing from the price history, which flatters absolute returns. The same-day comparison is drawn from the same universe, so it is much less affected, but not immune.
- Data artifacts. Any window containing a one-day move beyond ±25% is excluded, because such moves are almost always unadjusted splits or bonuses. This also removes a few genuine crashes.
- No costs. Brokerage, taxes and slippage are not deducted. Small excess returns may not survive them.
- Averages, not forecasts. Outcomes vary widely around these averages. The "% beating it" column shows how often the typical event worked; the median shows the typical case when the mean is pulled by a few big winners.
Data and reuse
Download the full results table: CSV. You are welcome to cite these
figures with a link to this page. The study is re-run periodically from research_studies/study_highs_dma.py in the Flash Finance
codebase.
