Forecast accuracy: every range locked, graded and fingerprinted
We publish how far the Nifty, the Sensex, sector indices and 2,000 NSE stocks could move over the next week and month. This page keeps score. A range "holds" when the price on its last session closes inside it. An 80% range that holds far more than 80% of the time is too wide to be useful; far less, too narrow. Both count as misses of the method.
How often the ranges held
The ledger: each day's forecasts and their fingerprint
Forecasts are written once to a table that refuses edits and deletions, and the SHA-256 fingerprint of each day's full list is recorded before the market reopens. Change a single number and the fingerprint changes completely.
| From the close of | Forecasts | SHA-256 fingerprint | File |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct 2026 ✓ verified | 4,074 | 89bfa52bf680468015e1ac32613991abb34761a02edf183f4b211381399e42cf | JSON |
Check a day yourself
- Download that day's JSON file from the table.
- Compute its SHA-256:
sha256sum file.json(Linux, Mac) orcertutil -hashfile file.json SHA256(Windows). - It must equal the fingerprint shown, which was recorded on the evening the forecasts were made.
Today's calibration
The multiplier applied to each group's recent volatility so that its ranges held the stated share of past outcomes. A bell curve would give 0.67, 1.28 and 1.96; real markets need wider 95% ranges because big moves happen more often.
| Group | Range | 50% | 80% | 95% | Past outcomes used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indices | next week | 0.68 | 1.35 | 2.16 | 17,305 |
| Indices | next month | 0.67 | 1.32 | 2.13 | 17,241 |
| Stocks, 200 most traded | next week | 0.62 | 1.26 | 2.17 | 49,334 |
| Stocks, 200 most traded | next month | 0.69 | 1.37 | 2.30 | 49,158 |
| Stocks, next 300 | next week | 0.63 | 1.29 | 2.23 | 72,400 |
| Stocks, next 300 | next month | 0.71 | 1.39 | 2.31 | 71,861 |
| Stocks, next 500 | next week | 0.62 | 1.28 | 2.26 | 120,966 |
| Stocks, next 500 | next month | 0.69 | 1.38 | 2.33 | 120,111 |
| Stocks, next 1,000 | next week | 0.60 | 1.27 | 2.29 | 235,379 |
| Stocks, next 1,000 | next month | 0.67 | 1.36 | 2.33 | 233,335 |
Before launch: the back-test
On 2014–2026 data for the 300 most-traded NSE stocks, the same method's weekly 80% ranges held between 79.0% and 80.8% of the time in every year; monthly 80% ranges held 80.1% on average but between 75.8% and 83.5% in single years, the low ones when the market's mood changed (2018, 2020, 2023). A back-test is not a live record; the table above is.
