Is Margin Buying Smart Money?
What happened next to stocks, sorted each session by three MTF signals. Returns are in excess of the NIFTY 500 over the same window, pooled over 418 sample sessions since Jan 2018. Descriptive statistics, not a trading rule.
Financed shares vs their own range
How high each stock's financed shares sat in their own 120-session range: D1 near the low, D10 near the high.
D10 − D1 median gap: -0.16 pp.
| Decile | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median excess return % | -0.43 | -0.38 | -0.37 | -0.39 | -0.44 | -0.46 | -0.53 | -0.53 | -0.58 | -0.59 |
| Mean excess return % | +0.02 | +0.10 | +0.12 | +0.09 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.03 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| Beat the NIFTY 500 % | 45.7 | 45.9 | 46.2 | 45.7 | 45.5 | 45.2 | 44.6 | 44.5 | 44.3 | 44.3 |
| Observations | 37,417 | 37,638 | 37,683 | 37,636 | 37,587 | 37,722 | 37,674 | 37,645 | 37,676 | 37,881 |
D10 − D1 median gap: -0.48 pp.
| Decile | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median excess return % | -0.92 | -0.80 | -0.83 | -0.88 | -1.06 | -1.07 | -1.16 | -1.30 | -1.42 | -1.40 |
| Mean excess return % | +0.25 | +0.40 | +0.36 | +0.39 | +0.18 | +0.34 | +0.20 | +0.17 | +0.08 | +0.04 |
| Beat the NIFTY 500 % | 45.7 | 46.2 | 46.0 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 45.2 | 44.6 | 44.1 | 43.6 | 44.0 |
| Observations | 36,958 | 37,177 | 37,222 | 37,175 | 37,126 | 37,261 | 37,212 | 37,185 | 37,214 | 37,418 |
D10 − D1 median gap: -0.98 pp.
| Decile | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median excess return % | -1.96 | -1.72 | -2.05 | -1.96 | -2.20 | -2.51 | -2.74 | -2.87 | -3.16 | -2.95 |
| Mean excess return % | +0.91 | +1.12 | +1.01 | +1.24 | +0.95 | +0.76 | +0.67 | +0.55 | +0.27 | +0.28 |
| Beat the NIFTY 500 % | 45.0 | 45.6 | 44.7 | 45.2 | 44.7 | 44.0 | 43.5 | 43.2 | 42.7 | 43.4 |
| Observations | 35,761 | 35,976 | 36,019 | 35,976 | 35,924 | 36,060 | 36,010 | 35,985 | 36,010 | 36,213 |
20-session change in shares financed
Price-neutral margin buying over the last 20 sessions: D1 heaviest selling, D10 heaviest buying.
D10 − D1 median gap: -0.10 pp.
| Decile | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median excess return % | -0.35 | -0.40 | -0.47 | -0.53 | -0.55 | -0.51 | -0.49 | -0.49 | -0.45 | -0.46 |
| Mean excess return % | -0.01 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.06 |
| Beat the NIFTY 500 % | 46.3 | 45.8 | 45.4 | 44.5 | 44.4 | 44.6 | 45.2 | 45.0 | 45.2 | 45.6 |
| Observations | 37,319 | 37,534 | 37,583 | 37,533 | 37,499 | 37,622 | 37,568 | 37,548 | 37,569 | 37,785 |
D10 − D1 median gap: -0.13 pp.
| Decile | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median excess return % | -0.83 | -0.86 | -1.10 | -1.20 | -1.38 | -1.22 | -1.12 | -1.04 | -0.97 | -0.96 |
| Mean excess return % | +0.10 | +0.36 | +0.22 | +0.21 | +0.16 | +0.17 | +0.22 | +0.22 | +0.40 | +0.32 |
| Beat the NIFTY 500 % | 46.0 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 44.3 | 43.8 | 44.4 | 44.8 | 45.1 | 45.5 | 45.6 |
| Observations | 36,862 | 37,077 | 37,125 | 37,076 | 37,042 | 37,163 | 37,111 | 37,090 | 37,112 | 37,325 |
D10 − D1 median gap: -0.12 pp.
| Decile | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median excess return % | -1.82 | -1.90 | -2.36 | -2.88 | -3.02 | -2.92 | -2.68 | -2.25 | -2.13 | -1.94 |
| Mean excess return % | +0.79 | +0.95 | +0.79 | +0.57 | +0.44 | +0.39 | +0.80 | +0.95 | +1.03 | +1.07 |
| Beat the NIFTY 500 % | 45.3 | 45.4 | 44.0 | 42.9 | 42.7 | 42.8 | 43.5 | 44.8 | 45.1 | 45.5 |
| Observations | 35,671 | 35,882 | 35,930 | 35,881 | 35,849 | 35,967 | 35,916 | 35,895 | 35,917 | 36,126 |
Margin holders' gain or loss
How far the financed shares sat from their financed value: D1 deepest loss, D10 largest gain.
D10 − D1 median gap: +0.38 pp.
| Decile | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median excess return % | -0.78 | -0.54 | -0.49 | -0.48 | -0.44 | -0.39 | -0.45 | -0.38 | -0.33 | -0.40 |
| Mean excess return % | -0.07 | -0.01 | -0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.08 | +0.22 | +0.19 |
| Beat the NIFTY 500 % | 42.6 | 44.2 | 44.7 | 44.7 | 45.1 | 45.8 | 45.4 | 46.1 | 46.8 | 46.6 |
| Observations | 37,419 | 37,639 | 37,682 | 37,637 | 37,586 | 37,723 | 37,674 | 37,645 | 37,676 | 37,882 |
D10 − D1 median gap: +1.48 pp.
| Decile | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median excess return % | -2.04 | -1.44 | -1.28 | -1.11 | -1.00 | -0.88 | -0.99 | -0.81 | -0.59 | -0.56 |
| Mean excess return % | -0.36 | -0.18 | -0.08 | +0.03 | +0.16 | +0.28 | +0.22 | +0.50 | +0.80 | +1.02 |
| Beat the NIFTY 500 % | 41.5 | 43.0 | 43.8 | 44.3 | 45.0 | 45.7 | 45.2 | 46.4 | 47.4 | 47.8 |
| Observations | 36,960 | 37,178 | 37,221 | 37,176 | 37,125 | 37,262 | 37,212 | 37,185 | 37,214 | 37,419 |
D10 − D1 median gap: +3.97 pp.
| Decile | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median excess return % | -4.80 | -3.44 | -3.09 | -2.44 | -2.21 | -1.95 | -2.00 | -1.78 | -1.25 | -0.83 |
| Mean excess return % | -1.37 | -0.60 | +0.03 | +0.39 | +0.66 | +1.01 | +1.06 | +1.36 | +2.17 | +2.99 |
| Beat the NIFTY 500 % | 39.6 | 41.1 | 42.1 | 43.4 | 44.3 | 44.9 | 44.9 | 45.8 | 47.3 | 48.4 |
| Observations | 35,763 | 35,977 | 36,018 | 35,977 | 35,923 | 36,061 | 36,010 | 35,985 | 36,010 | 36,214 |
How this is measured
Every fifth session from 2018 on, each NSE stock (ETFs excluded) with at least ₹1 crore financed is ranked on the signal and split into ten equal groups. For each stock the split- and bonus-adjusted return over the next 5, 21 and 63 sessions is taken, minus the NIFTY 500's return over the same days. The tables pool every stock-session in each decile. Overlapping windows mean the observations are not independent: read the pattern, not the decimals.
Figures for the 22 Oct 2026 session · last updated 2026-10-26 20:38 IST · Source: Exchange data · 10/10 data checks passed.
How to read this page. Everything here describes what the exchanges have already disclosed about margin-funded (MTF) positions. It is not a forecast, a recommendation, or a signal to buy or sell. Words such as "crowded", "fragile" or "underwater" name a pattern in the numbers, nothing more. Margin funding carries the risk of losses larger than the money you put in.
Flash Finance is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser and is not affiliated with NSE, BSE or SEBI. Exchange data may be revised by the exchange. Verify anything you intend to act on against the exchange's own records.
