Executive Summary

Inox Wind Limited (INOXWIND) announced con-call and analyst update highlights for Q1 FY27 as of August 12, 2026. The company reiterated Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹872 Cr, PAT of ₹64 Cr, and EBITDA margin expansion to 27%. Key updates include an expanded order book of 4.4 GW (offering 24-36 months of execution visibility), a strategic shift toward equipment supply (now 59% of order book), a 1.5 GW MoU with group entity Inox Clean Energy, and the completion of the power evacuation business demerger as of August 1, 2026.

While the 4.4 GW order backlog is impressive (~7.2x TTM revenue), this announcement largely aggregates and elaborates on information already filed between June and early August 2026. Thus, the catalyst is already priced in. Inox Wind presents a POSSIBLE multibagger thesis (Score: 58/100) supported by operational turnaround and massive order visibility, but tempered by high related-party dependency, execution bottlenecks, and Q1 FY27 YoY PAT contraction.

1. Catalyst & News Impact Assessment

• Freshness & Prior Disclosures: On August 7, 2026, Inox Wind had already reported Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹872 Cr and the 4.4 GW order book. The 1.5 GW MoU with Inox Clean Energy was disclosed on June 16, 2026, and the ₹1,600 Cr NLC India order on July 29, 2026. The August 12 filing is an institutional analyst meet update reiterating these figures. Therefore, the news impact score is calibrated to 45/100 due to lack of novel stock-moving catalysts.
• Strategic Shift: The transition to equipment supply (59% of order book) reduces EPC working capital drag and completion risks, while the 13.3 GW O&M business provides high-margin recurring cash flows.

2. Ramp-Aware Execution & Financial Impact Math

• TTM Revenue Base: ₹3,989 Cr | TTM PAT: ₹566 Cr | TTM EPS: ₹2.35
• Order Book Assessment: 4.4 GW backlog valued at approximately ₹28,600 Cr (~7.2x TTM revenue).
• Execution Timeline: Management targets execution over 24-36 months (3 years).
• Annualized Backlog Execution: ₹28,600 Cr / 3 years = ~₹9,533 Cr/year.
• Year-1 Uplift (FY27): Q1 FY27 revenue reached ₹872 Cr. Accounting for typical wind sector H2 weighting (70% in H2), full-year FY27 revenue is estimated at ~₹5,000 Cr (+25.3% YoY uplift over TTM).
• Steady-State Uplift (FY28/FY29): Once execution ramps to ~1.3-1.5 GW annually, steady-state revenue will reach ~₹8,500 Cr (+113.1% uplift over TTM).
• Margin & EPS Profile: Assuming a steady-state NPM of ~12.0% (accounting for higher equipment supply mix offset by 13.3 GW O&M annuity margins), steady-state PAT would reach ~₹1,020 Cr.
• EPS Uplift: On a base of 240.8 Cr shares, steady-state EPS reaches ~₹4.24 to ₹4.50/share, representing a +95% uplift over current TTM EPS of ₹2.35.

3. Industry Context & Quality Gate Analysis

• Capital Intensity & Cycle: Wind turbine OEM and EPC execution are capital-intensive, requiring substantial working capital for sub-assembly inventory, tower manufacturing, and land development.
• Execution Difficulty: Land acquisition, grid interconnection approval, and monsoon disruptions make rapid execution difficult. The industry CAGR is estimated at 18.0% driven by India's 500 GW RE target.
• Quality Gate: PASSED. TTM ROCE stands at 14.0%, up from negative levels in FY24. Balance sheet net debt has reduced to ₹993 Cr (D/E 0.16), supported by group debt reductions and equity raising.

4. Valuation & Risk Calibration

• Current Valuation: Price ₹74.0 | Trailing P/E: 31.5x | Peer Median P/E: 86.0x.
• Stock Performance: Down 47.4% over 12 months, reflecting previous over-optimism and Q1 FY27 earnings weakness (Q1 PAT of ₹64 Cr was down 34% YoY).
• Governance & Related-Party Concerns: Significant proportion of order book relies on related party Inox Clean Energy (1.5 GW MoU / ₹3,500 Cr supply contract) and asset divestments to Inox Green. Promoter holding is 44.18%.

5. Scenario Analysis & Valuation Targets

• Base Case (+45% Upside / Target Price ₹107): Execution ramps to 1.3 GW/year by FY28, revenue reaches ₹8,000 Cr, PAT reaches ₹960 Cr (EPS ₹4.00). Valuation at 26x FY28 EPS.
• Bull Case (+90% Upside / Target Price ₹140): Execution exceeds 1.5 GW/year, O&M margins expand, revenue reaches ₹9,500 Cr, PAT reaches ₹1,200 Cr (EPS ₹5.00). Valuation re-rates to 28x FY28 EPS.
• Bear Case (-30% Downside / Target Price ₹52): Grid delays and land bottlenecks stall execution to <0.9 GW/year; margin pressure from component pricing drops EPS to ₹2.60. Valuation derates to 20x EPS.

6. Verdict Rationale

Inox Wind is in a solid structural turnaround phase with a massive order book (4.4 GW) and an improving business mix (higher O&M and equipment supply). However, the market has already absorbed these developments, and near-term execution volatility (Q1 PAT down 34% YoY) prevents an immediate strong candidate rating. It is rated POSSIBLE (Score: 58/100) with a 24-36 month investment horizon.

Executive Summary

Inox Wind Limited (INOXWIND) announced its Q1 FY27 investor presentation on 2026-08-07. Key highlights include an order book expansion to a record ~4.4 GW, formalization of a ₹3,500 Cr firm contract (500 MW tranche) with group entity Inox Clean Energy, and completion of the power evacuation business demerger. While order visibility is strong, Q1 FY27 financial performance was muted (Revenue flat YoY at ₹872 Cr, PAT down 34% YoY to ₹64 Cr). Additionally, this ₹3,500 Cr contract was previously disclosed in EGM/MoU announcements in June and July 2026, making the catalyst largely priced in.

1. Catalyst Freshness & Order Book Realities

• Incremental vs Known News: The MoU for 1,500 MW was disclosed on 2026-06-16, and shareholder approval for the ₹3,500 Cr contract was reported on 2026-07-22. Signing the firm agreement for the first 500 MW tranche formalizes prior approvals but is NOT fresh news.
• Order Book Scale: Total order book stands at 4.4 GW (~₹22,400+ Cr, ~5.6x TTM revenue). While impressive, multi-gigawatt wind order books carry long execution cycles (2.5 - 3.5 years).

2. Financial & Execution Math (Ramp-Aware)

• TTM Base: Revenue ₹3,989 Cr | PAT ₹566 Cr | EPS ₹2.35 | OPM 24.2%
• Q1 FY27 Performance: Revenue ₹872 Cr, PAT ₹64 Cr. Management guidance targets FY27 revenue growth of 75% (~₹7,000 Cr). Achieving this requires delivering ~₹6,128 Cr across Q2-Q4 FY27 (~₹2,042 Cr/quarter), which poses substantial operational risk given seasonal monsoon constraints in Q2.
• Realistic Year-1 (FY27E) Estimate: Expect revenue uplift of ~35% YoY to ~₹5,380 Cr. At an estimated NPM of ~12%, FY27 PAT reaches ~₹645 Cr (EPS ~₹2.68).
• Steady-State (FY28E) Estimate: Revenue ramps to ~₹7,000 Cr (+75% over FY26). With steady OPM at 22-24% and NPM at 13%, PAT reaches ~₹910 Cr, yielding EPS of ~₹3.80 (+62% over TTM EPS).

3. Industry Context & Quality Gate Assessment

• Capital Intensity: High. Manufacturing WTGs, civil foundations, and grid connectivity require substantial working capital, though shifting toward equipment supply mitigates balance sheet drag.
• Industry CAGR: Estimated at 18% p.a., supported by India's 500 GW renewable energy goal by 2030.
• Quality Metrics: ROCE has recovered to 14.0%, and debt/equity has dropped to a healthy 0.16x. The 12.5 GW O&M business provides long-term recurring cash flow.

4. Valuation & Scenario Calibration

• Current Valuation: Share price ₹78.0, Market Cap ₹18,784 Cr, Trailing P/E 33.2x (vs peer median P/E 88.8x).
• Base Case (+45%): Execution reaches ~₹5,500 Cr in FY27 and ~₹6,800 Cr in FY28. EPS achieves ₹3.80. Assigning a forward P/E of 30x yields a target price of ₹114 (+45%).
• Bull Case (+85%): Management successfully hits the 75% FY27 guidance and sustains growth in FY28. EPS reaches ₹4.50. At a re-rated P/E of 32x, target price is ₹144 (+85%).
• Bear Case (-30%): Execution delays in H2 FY27 lead to guidance missing, and related-party execution slows down. EPS stagnates at ₹2.20. P/E derates to 25x, target price ₹55 (-30%).

5. Verdict Rationale

INOXWIND is classified as a POSSIBLE multibagger candidate (Score: 62/100). The structural tailwinds in Indian wind energy, balance sheet deleveraging, and 4.4 GW order book provide strong multi-year fundamentals. However, the news is already partially priced in, Q1 results show near-term weakness, and the heavy H2 execution dependency along with related-party concentration requires cautious execution tracking.

Analyst Evaluation Report: Inox Wind Limited (INOXWIND)

Analysis Date: 2026-07-29

1. Catalyst & Ramp-Aware Execution Math

Inox Wind has secured a ₹1,600 Cr turnkey order from PSU major NLC India Limited for a 200 MW wind project. - TTM Revenue: ₹3,989 Cr - Order Value: ₹1,600 Cr (40.1% of TTM revenue) - Execution Timeline: 24 months (2.0 years) - Annualized Revenue Contribution: ₹1,600 Cr / 2 years = ₹800 Cr/year - Year-1 & Steady-State Revenue Uplift: ₹800 Cr / ₹3,989 Cr = +20.1% - PAT / EPS Impact: At current NPM of ~14.19% (FY26 PAT ₹566 Cr / Rev ₹3,989 Cr), an additional ₹800 Cr revenue yields ~₹113.5 Cr in PAT. Against TTM PAT of ₹566 Cr, this represents a +20.1% EPS uplift (translating to ~₹0.47 EPS added to TTM EPS of ₹2.35).

2. Industry Context & Execution Reality

• Capital Intensity: HIGH. Wind OEM manufacturing and turnkey EPC projects require substantial capital for component sourcing (towers, nacelles, blades), land acquisition, and civil work before milestone billing.
• Execution Difficulty: Turnkey wind project commissioning in India frequently faces bottlenecks in transmission grid access, land right-of-way (ROW), and monsoon delays. Management targets ~70% of execution in H2 of fiscal years, emphasizing the seasonal and lumpy nature of revenue recognition.
• Industry Growth: Structural industry CAGR is projected at ~15% driven by India's target of 500 GW non-fossil capacity by 2030 and ALMM implementation for wind turbines.

3. Fundamental Quality & Trajectory Analysis

• Turnaround Dynamics: Inox Wind has transitioned from severe losses in FY24 (-₹228 Cr PAT) to strong profitability in FY25 (PAT ₹403 Cr) and FY26 (PAT ₹566 Cr). ROCE has improved to 14.0%.
• Balance Sheet Repair: Debt stands at ₹993 Cr against a Net Worth of ₹6,333 Cr (D/E 0.16), significantly reducing balance sheet risk.
• Growth Deceleration Warning: Despite full-year FY26 improvement, Q4 FY26 revenue declined -3.3% YoY (₹1,244 Cr vs ₹1,286 Cr) and PAT fell -44% YoY (₹106 Cr vs ₹189.7 Cr). This quarter-on-quarter deceleration justifies the 50.7% stock price correction over the past 12 months.

4. Governance & Valuation Context

• Governance Flags: 1. Significant ongoing related-party transactions (EGM seeking approval for ₹3,500 Cr supply contract and ₹500 Cr guarantee). 2. Proposed 139% pay hike for Director Devansh Jain during a period of quarterly profit deceleration.
• Valuation: TTM P/E sits at 32.8x (peer median ~30.7x). While not egregiously overvalued given a 4.7 GW order book, re-rating depends on converting the order book into timely earnings without margin compression or working capital stretch.

5. Valuation Scenarios (24-36 Month Horizon)

• Base Case (+35% upside): Execution of the 4.7 GW order book proceeds at a steady pace. FY28 EPS reaches ~₹3.20 (+36% over TTM). At a standard 32x P/E, price target = ₹102.4 (Upside: ~35%).
• Bull Case (+70% upside): Accelerated execution of NLC India and PSU contracts, O&M segment (12.5 GW) expands margins to 28% OPM. EPS reaches ₹4.00, P/E holds at 33x -> Price target = ₹131.0 (Upside: ~70%).
• Bear Case (-30% downside): Grid delays and working capital lockups in PSU turnkey orders cause execution drag; quarterly earnings stay sluggish. EPS drops to ₹2.10, P/E de-rates to 25x -> Price target = ₹52.5 (Downside: -30%).

6. Final Verdict Rationale

Inox Wind's order win of ₹1,600 Cr provides clear multi-year revenue visibility, taking the total order book to 4.7 GW. However, execution lumpiness (demonstrated by weak Q4 FY26 YoY results), working-capital intensity in turnkey PSU projects, and governance/RPT concerns cap conviction. The stock is rated as a POSSIBLE multibagger candidate (Score: 58/100).

Inox Wind (INOXWIND) - Equity Research Report

Analysis Date: 2026-07-22 Current Price: ₹79.0 | Market Cap: ₹19,029 Cr

1. Executive Summary & Catalyst Freshness

On July 22, 2026, Inox Wind Limited (IWL) issued an EGM notice (scheduled for August 13, 2026) seeking shareholder approval for two related party transactions: 1. A ₹3,500 Crore contract to supply ~500 MW of Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) to group company Inox Clean Energy Limited through March 2029. 2. An omnibus approval to provide up to ₹500 Crore in credit support/guarantees for its subsidiary, Inox Green Energy Services.

Freshness Assessment: ALREADY PRICED IN. This supply approval stems directly from the 1,500 MW framework MoU signed with Inox Clean Energy on June 16, 2026 (announced 36 days prior). The current EGM notice is a procedural step for Related Party Transaction (RPT) approval rather than a fresh incremental order win.

2. Catalyst Ramp-Aware Financial Math

• Contract Size: ₹3,500 Cr
• TTM Revenue: ₹3,989 Cr
• Deal-to-TTM Revenue Ratio: 0.88x
• Execution Timeline: ~2.75 years (till March 2029)

Annualized Revenue & EPS Impact:

• Annual Incremental Revenue: ₹3,500 Cr / 2.75 yrs = ₹1,272.7 Cr / year
• Year-1 & Steady-State Revenue Uplift: ₹1,272.7 Cr / ₹3,989 Cr = +31.9%
• Margin Assumptions: Assuming net profit margin (NPM) stabilizes around ~10.0% on equipment supply contracts (below overall TTM NPM of 14.2% due to related-party transfer pricing considerations).
• Incremental Annual PAT: ₹1,272.7 Cr × 10% = ₹127.3 Cr
• Baseline TTM PAT: ₹566 Cr
• Steady-State EPS Uplift: ₹127.3 Cr / ₹566 Cr = +22.4%

3. Industry Context & Execution Constraints

• Industry: Electric Equipment / Wind Energy OEM
• Capital Intensity: HIGH. Wind turbine manufacturing and turnkey EPC projects require substantial capital for inventory procurement, manufacturing plant uptime, and site erection equipment.
• Execution Difficulty: HIGH. Execution is subject to severe seasonal variations (monsoon slowdowns in Q2), delayed land acquisition, and state grid evacuation/substation availability.
• Expected Industry CAGR: ~15.0% over the next 3–5 years.

4. Fundamental Quality & SEPA Grade

• SEPA Grade: C
• Growth Trajectory: Revenue grew significantly YoY in FY25 (₹3,553.8 Cr vs ₹1,643.9 Cr in FY24), but momentum slowed in Q4 FY26 (Mar 2026 revenue of ₹1,244 Cr, down -3.3% YoY compared to Mar 2025 ₹1,286 Cr; Mar 2026 EPS ₹0.53 vs ₹1.35 in Mar 2025).
• Return Metrics: TTM ROCE stands at 14.0%, which is modest for an equipment manufacturer undergoing a cyclical upswing.
• Balance Sheet Strength: Debt-to-Equity is comfortable at 0.16 (Debt ₹993 Cr vs Net Worth ₹6,333 Cr).
• Technical Relative Strength: Severely weak (-51.6% 12-month return), reflecting market concerns over execution speed and related-party deal dependence.

5. Governance & Red Flag Constraints

Per research guardrails, governance risks impose strict caps on score and confidence: 1. Related Party Dominance: The contract is with Inox Clean Energy Limited, raising concerns regarding arms-length pricing and actual cash collection dynamics. 2. Group Guarantees: Extending ₹500 Cr in credit guarantees to Inox Green Energy Services creates contingent liabilities for IWL. 3. Promoter Remuneration: Shareholders recently voted on a 139% pay hike for executive management.

Owing to these active related-party and governance concerns, the verdict is capped at POSSIBLE and overall confidence is constrained to 0.50.

6. Valuation & Multi-Scenario Analysis

• Current Trailing P/E: 33.6x (vs Peer Median 31.3x)

7. Verdict Rationale

Inox Wind possesses a substantial order book and a favorable macro tailwind in Indian renewable energy. However, this specific ₹3,500 Cr announcement is already priced in (procedural follow-up to the June 16 MoU) and carries significant related-party execution risk. Coupled with decelerating Q4 FY26 performance (-3.3% YoY top-line decline) and severe 12-month relative share price weakness (-51.6%), the stock achieves a POSSIBLE multibagger rating with a score of 38/100.

Executive Summary

Inox Wind Limited (IWL) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with group company Inox Clean Energy to supply 1,500 MW of advanced 3.3 MW and 4.X MW wind turbines. This expands IWL's order book from 3.1 GW to over 4.5 GW. While the headline capacity addition is massive, the related-party nature of the deal and a sharp deceleration in IWL's Mar 2026 quarterly earnings warrant a highly skeptical and measured assessment.

1. Ramp-Aware Impact Math

• Order Value Estimation: Based on IWL's existing 3.2 GW order book valued at ₹22,433.84 Cr, the implied realization is ~₹7.01 Cr per MW. Thus, the 1,500 MW MoU is estimated to be worth ₹10,515 Cr (2.63x TTM revenue of ₹3,989 Cr).
• Execution Timeline: Wind projects of this scale typically require 3.5 years to fully execute, aligning with Inox Clean's target of reaching a 14 GW portfolio by FY29.
• Year-1 Revenue Uplift: Assuming a conservative ramp-up of 150 MW (~₹1,050 Cr) in the first 12 months (due to MoU-to-order conversion and design phases), the Year-1 revenue uplift is estimated at 26.3%.
• Steady-State Revenue Uplift: Once fully ramped (executing ~500 MW per year), the annual revenue contribution will be ~₹3,500 Cr, representing an 87.7% uplift over TTM revenue.
• Earnings Impact: Current TTM PAT is ₹566 Cr (14.2% margin). Assuming a conservative 11% PAT margin on this incremental related-party order, steady-state incremental PAT is estimated at ₹385 Cr, representing a 68.0% EPS uplift (raising EPS from ₹2.35 to ~₹3.95).

2. Industry Capital-Intensity & Expected CAGR

• Capital Intensity: HIGH. Wind turbine manufacturing and EPC services require significant upfront capital, heavy logistics, and long working capital cycles (receivables and inventory).
• Execution Difficulty: HIGH. Land acquisition, grid connectivity, and monsoon-related delays frequently stretch execution timelines.
• Industry CAGR: Estimated at 15% structurally, supported by India's aggressive renewable energy targets and favorable policies (ALMM, GST reductions).

3. Multibagger Quality Assessment

• Financial Performance: TTM revenue stands at ₹3,989 Cr with an OPM of 24.2%. However, the latest quarter (Mar 2026) showed a YoY deceleration (Revenue down 3.2% YoY to ₹1,244 Cr; PAT down 44.1% YoY to ₹106 Cr). This indicates that near-term execution momentum has hit a temporary bottleneck.
• Balance Sheet & ROCE: ROCE is moderate at 14.0%. Debt is ₹993 Cr, which is manageable given the net worth of ₹6,333 Cr (D/E of 0.16).
• Promoter & Governance: Promoter holding is stable but moderate at 44.2%. The MoU is a related-party transaction within the INOXGFL Group, which introduces transfer pricing and governance risks.

4. Valuation & Scenario Calibration

• Base Case (35% Upside): Steady execution of the order book over 3.5 years, margins stabilize at 11%, and EPS reaches ₹3.95. P/E de-rates slightly to 30x due to execution risks, yielding a target price of ~₹122.
• Bull Case (95% Upside): Faster execution (3 years), higher margins (13% PAT margin) due to 4.X MW WTG efficiencies, and EPS reaches ₹4.50. P/E expands to 40x, yielding a target price of ~₹180.
• Bear Case (-45% Downside): Severe execution delays, working capital blockage, and margin compression (7% PAT margin) on related-party sales. EPS stagnates at ₹2.00, and P/E de-rates to 25x, yielding a target price of ~₹50.

5. Verdict Rationale

Inox Wind is classified as a POSSIBLE multibagger candidate. The massive order book provides excellent long-term revenue visibility, but the recent YoY earnings decline in Mar 2026 and the related-party nature of this MoU require a cautious approach. Execution and working capital management will be the key determinants of whether this catalyst translates into actual shareholder value.

1. Ramp-Aware Impact Math

• Current Financial Baseline: Inox Wind (consolidated) reports a TTM revenue of ‹3,877 Cr and a TTM PAT of ‹583 Cr, yielding a Net Profit Margin (NPM) of ~15.0% and an OPM of 24.6%.
• Capacity Expansion Potential: The newly inaugurated 1.2 GW nacelle and hub facility at Kalyangarh is designed for 3MW and upcoming 4X MW WTGs. At an industry-average realization of ‹7 Cr per MW (inclusive of EPC/common infrastructure), 1.2 GW represents a peak revenue potential of ~‹8,400 Cr per annum at 100% utilization.
• Year 1 (FY27) Ramp-up: Assuming a conservative 30% capacity utilization in Year 1 (adding ~360 MW of execution), the incremental revenue capacity is ‹2,520 Cr. However, accounting for the optimization of older facilities and execution timelines, we project a realistic Year 1 net revenue uplift of 25% (‹970 Cr), bringing revenue to ~‹4,847 Cr.
• Steady-State (FY28/29) Ramp-up: By Year 3, assuming the facility achieves 80-90% utilization and helps execute the massive ‹22,433.84 Cr (3.2 GW) order book, consolidated revenue is projected to double to ~‹7,800 Cr (100% uplift over TTM).
• Earnings Impact: Maintaining a steady-state NPM of 15.0% on ‹7,800 Cr revenue yields a projected PAT of ‹1,170 Cr. This translates to a steady-state EPS of ‹6.66 (a 100% increase over TTM EPS of ‹3.33).

2. Industry Capital-Intensity & Expected CAGR

• Capital Intensity: HIGH. Wind turbine manufacturing and EPC services require substantial upfront capex for manufacturing plants, heavy cranes, and land acquisition, alongside long working capital cycles.
• Industry CAGR: Estimated at 18% over the next 5-7 years, driven by India's aggressive renewable energy targets, the re-introduction of bidding caps, and the implementation of the ALMM (Approved List of Models and Manufacturers) for wind.

3. Multibagger Quality Assessment

• Growth & Acceleration: The company has staged a dramatic turnaround from deep losses in FY23/FY24 (e.g., Q1 FY24 PAT of -‹64.88 Cr) to consistent profitability in FY25 and FY26 (Q2 FY26 PAT at ‹246.88 Cr). Operating margins have expanded to 24.6%.
• Balance Sheet & ROCE: Debt has been significantly reduced to ‹1,084 Cr, resulting in a healthy D/E of 0.24. Trailing ROCE stands at 12.0%, which is moderate but expected to scale past 18% as asset turnover improves from the current 2.43x.
• Promoter Holding: At 44.2%, promoter skin in the game is reasonable, though lower than some high-conviction peers.

4. Valuation & Scenarios (Horizon: 24-36 Months)

• Base Case (65% Upside): Successful ramp-up of the 1.2 GW facility to 70% utilization by FY28. Revenue reaches ‹6,800 Cr, PAT at ‹1,020 Cr (EPS ‹5.80). Applying a conservative multiple of 35x P/E (reflecting high growth but execution risks) yields a target price of ‹203.
• Bull Case (120% Upside): Rapid execution of the 3.2 GW order book, 4X MW WTG launch yields higher margins (NPM expands to 17%), and the solar-wind hybrid synergy with Inox Solar plays out. Revenue reaches ‹8,000 Cr, PAT at ‹1,360 Cr (EPS ‹7.75). At 35x P/E, target price is ‹271.
• Bear Case (-30% Downside): Execution bottlenecks (grid connectivity, land acquisition delays) persist. Revenue growth stalls at 10% YoY, margins compress due to steel price inflation, and the stock de-rates to 25x trailing P/E on lower earnings, leading to a price of ‹87.

5. Verdict Rationale

Inox Wind is a classic turnaround story operating in a highly favorable macro environment. The inauguration of the 1.2 GW facility is a critical milestone because manufacturing capacity—not order inflow—is the primary bottleneck for the company. While the stock has corrected 34% over the last 12 months due to execution skepticism, this capacity addition provides a credible path to doubling revenues and earnings over the next 3 years. However, the high capital intensity of the industry and historical execution volatility cap the verdict at POSSIBLE rather than Strong Candidate.