AI research briefs on NSE Expansion & Order-win announcements —
verdict, deal magnitude, industry context, and the actual return since each announcement,
measured from a price you could really have paid and benchmarked against the Nifty Smallcap 250 and NIFTY 50.
Auto-analysis hourly · 10:00–22:00 IST📐 Entry = next day's openLast analysis: 15 Oct, 23:28 IST0 in queue
Important: These are AI-generated research briefs, not investment advice.
Our own back-tests show this analysis does not reliably predict which stocks become
multibaggers (it is best used as a research summary and a downside risk-flag). The “Return since”
column is the factual market record, not a forecast. Do your own research; consult a SEBI-registered
adviser before investing.
📐 How we measure returns — entry = the next trading day's OPEN.
Every return and α on this page is calculated from the opening price of the first trading session
after the announcement, through to the latest close. We picked that entry on purpose: about
53% of these filings land after the 3:30 pm close, so scoring them from the announcement
day's own closing price would credit us with a pre-news price nobody could actually buy.
The next morning's open is available to every investor equally, no matter what time the
news broke — no look-ahead, no cherry-picked entry, no advantage we didn't earn.
342
Analysed
342
Strong candidates
2.5%
Median return (≥90d)
55%
% positive (≥90d)
-3.5%
Median α vs Smallcap 250 (≥90d)
45%
% beating Smallcap 250 (≥90d)
+8.8%
Median α vs NIFTY 50 (≥90d)
58%
% beating NIFTY 50 (≥90d)
📊 Alpha by verdict tier — live
matured picks (≥90 days), vs Smallcap 250
The verdict tiers carry the signal, not the raw score: judge each tier's
average/median alpha here — computed live from every matured pick in the database, α = pick return −
Nifty Smallcap 250 over the same window.
📈 Alpha distribution — Strong vs Unlikely
% of tier per α bucket
Strong (n=218) vs Unlikely (n=0) —
a right-shifted green profile means Strong picks beat the smallcap index more often; tails cut both ways.
⏱️ How alpha behaves as you hold — same 136 picks, four holding periods
fixed cohort · no pick enters or leaves between rows
Most platforms publish one number from one window. Here is the whole
curve — the identical 136 picks measured at 30, 60, 90 and 120 days after
entry. Because the set never changes, the shape cannot be an artefact of dropping
inconvenient picks. At 30 days the signal is negative, and we leave that on
the page: an order win or a capex plan reaches reported financials only after a full earnings
cycle, so a month measures the market's reflex, not the thesis.
Held for
Median return
% positive
Median α vs NIFTY 50
% beating NIFTY 50
Median α vs Smallcap 250
% beating Smallcap 250
30 days
-0.4%
49%
+0.5%
52%
-2.4%
42%
60 days
+1.7%
54%
+6.0%
66%
+0.5%
53%
90 days reported above
+9.5%
69%
+11.6%
76%
+2.5%
57%
120 days
+12.2%
71%
+14.9%
75%
+2.2%
52%
Why we report 90 days: one quarter is one earnings
cycle — the first point at which an announced order or expansion shows up in reported numbers.
That reasoning was fixed before the window was chosen, and every other horizon stays published
here so the choice can be checked. Cohort is small (n=136) and drawn from one market
period; α vs Smallcap 250 is the harder comparison and we show it alongside NIFTY 50 throughout.
🏆 The full record — our best picks and our worst, side by side.
Ranked by the return an investor would genuinely have earned: bought at the
next trading day's open after the announcement, held to the latest close.
Only matured picks (held ≥90 days) qualify — a pick that is three days old is
neither a win nor a loss yet. We publish the 10 worst next to the 10 best on purpose:
a leaderboard with only winners on it is marketing, not a track record.
Every row is a real, dated AI call on a real NSE announcement — nothing here is back-fitted or
re-picked after the fact. Return = next trading day's open after the announcement → latest
close in our database. α vs Nifty = that return minus NIFTY 50 over the same window.
The worst-picks columns are part of the record: this analysis does not reliably predict
multibaggers, and losses of this size are the honest downside of following any single call.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Research/educational only — not investment advice.
Multibagger score is an AI opinion (0-100). "Return since" = price change from the
opening price of the next trading day after the announcement — a price any investor could have
paid, whatever time the filing landed — to the latest available close in our database. We deliberately
do not measure from the announcement day's own close: over half these filings arrive after the 3:30 pm
close, so that price is unobtainable and would flatter this record by roughly a percentage point.
α vs Smallcap = that return minus the
Nifty Smallcap 250 over the same window (the apples-to-apples benchmark for these mostly-smallcap stocks);
positive α = the pick beat the smallcap market. α vs NIFTY 50 = the same picks measured against the
large-cap market over the same windows. The headline return/α tiles and the tier-performance chart use
matured picks only (196 picks held ≥90 days) — picks that are only
days old sit at ~0% by construction and would dilute the medians. We use 90 days because
one quarter is one earnings cycle: an announced order or expansion only reaches reported financials after
a full quarter, so shorter windows measure the market's reflex rather than the thesis — and it leaves an
investor ample opportunity to act. The holding-period table above publishes every horizon we measured,
including the ones where alpha is negative. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Research/educational only — not investment advice.
⚠️How this site is made: Market data pages are computed automatically from NSE/BSE publications and company filings; news articles and announcement analyses are written with AI assistance, with a human in the loop: our editors review what the AI produces. Both can contain errors. Verify with the original sources before any investment decision. Not investment advice; Flash Finance is not SEBI-registered. How we use AI
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