Bollinger Band Reversion
Two-sigma moves inside an uptrend tend to snap back toward the mean.
▶ Entry
Close below the lower Bollinger Band (20,2) while above the 200-day SMA.
Screener form: close < bb_lower AND close > sma200 — Close < Bollinger lower and Close > SMA 200.
■ Exit
Close back above the middle band (20-day SMA).
Signals are read on the close; the backtest fills at the next session's open.
| Stock | Sector | Close | Chg | Score | RSI (14) | ADX (14) | Relative volume (RVOL) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANTitan Company Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹4,798 | -0.88% | 41 | 34.11 | 31.24 | 2.29× |
| CUPIDCupid Limited | FMCG | ₹265.00 | -5.07% | 36 | 43.74 | 20.28 | 2.39× |
| NILKAMALNilkamal Limited | — | ₹1,888 | -1.55% | 35 | 43.21 | 37.73 | 0.65× |
| FEDERALBNKThe Federal Bank Limited | Bank | ₹332.75 | +0.00% | 34 | 34.83 | 20.41 | 2.94× |
| TATATECHTata Technologies Limited | IT | ₹722.45 | -4.78% | 33 | 32.25 | 11.70 | 2.25× |
| GUJALKALIGujarat Alkalies and Chemicals Limited | Chemicals | ₹638.70 | -5.20% | 27 | 32.13 | 30.65 | 1.40× |
| RAJRATANRajratan Global Wire Limited | Metal | ₹452.60 | +3.31% | 25 | 36.50 | 24.54 | 1.52× |
| INGERRANDIngersoll Rand (India) Limited | — | ₹4,156 | -1.64% | 25 | 28.94 | 27.04 | 1.47× |
| ROSSELLINDRossell India Limited | FMCG | ₹52.64 | -3.20% | 11 | 36.57 | 31.27 | 0.71× |
👀 Setting up (42)
| Stock | Sector | Close | Chg | Score | RSI (14) | ADX (14) | Relative volume (RVOL) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRBLKRBL Limited | FMCG | ₹392.45 | -0.75% | 55 | 41.71 | 36.75 | 0.37× |
| AVADHSUGARAvadh Sugar & Energy Limited | FMCG | ₹730.45 | +1.31% | 50 | 46.28 | 48.98 | 0.22× |
| RITCORitco Logistics Limited | — | ₹291.45 | -2.62% | 46 | 42.25 | 19.50 | 0.44× |
| KKCLKewal Kiran Clothing Limited | — | ₹485.60 | -0.83% | 45 | 40.61 | 14.43 | 0.29× |
| MAHASTEELMahamaya Steel Industries Limited | Metal | ₹1,142 | -4.99% | 44 | 42.77 | 27.81 | 0.17× |
| KTKBANKThe Karnataka Bank Limited | Bank | ₹313.80 | -0.03% | 44 | 43.50 | 30.79 | 0.74× |
| POLICYBZRPB Fintech Limited | IT | ₹1,743 | -1.25% | 43 | 46.29 | 29.31 | 1.07× |
| AJAXENGGAjax Engineering Limited | Infrastructure | ₹559.75 | -1.21% | 43 | 41.40 | 17.41 | 1.30× |
| TIILTechnocraft Industries (India) Limited | Metal | ₹3,054 | +0.14% | 42 | 46.24 | 35.64 | 0.84× |
| BAJAJ-AUTOBajaj Auto Limited | Auto | ₹11,414 | -0.75% | 42 | 42.15 | 33.70 | 1.37× |
| ADFFOODSADF Foods Limited | FMCG | ₹261.45 | -2.35% | 42 | 41.57 | 21.38 | 0.71× |
| TITANTitan Company Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹4,798 | -0.88% | 41 | 34.11 | 31.24 | 2.29× |
| PREMIERPOLPremier Polyfilm Limited | — | ₹81.43 | -1.09% | 40 | 42.81 | 31.18 | 0.41× |
| STYLSeshaasai Technologies Limited | Financial Services | ₹360.35 | -1.50% | 39 | 38.77 | 17.20 | 1.54× |
| MONARCHMonarch Networth Capital Limited | Financial Services | ₹366.15 | -0.45% | 39 | 41.45 | 19.22 | 0.84× |
| INDOTECHIndo Tech Transformers Limited | — | ₹3,395 | -0.49% | 36 | 38.27 | 17.29 | 0.45× |
| GODREJINDGodrej Industries Limited | Chemicals | ₹1,107 | -1.77% | 36 | 36.29 | 25.89 | 0.97× |
| CUPIDCupid Limited | FMCG | ₹265.00 | -5.07% | 36 | 43.74 | 20.28 | 2.39× |
| ALLCARGOAllcargo Logistics Limited | — | ₹11.11 | +0.73% | 36 | 46.04 | 33.37 | 0.26× |
| NILKAMALNilkamal Limited | — | ₹1,888 | -1.55% | 35 | 43.21 | 37.73 | 0.65× |
| MOLDTKPACMold-Tek Packaging Limited | — | ₹658.30 | -0.54% | 35 | 37.79 | 26.63 | 0.54× |
| UDSUpdater Services Limited | — | ₹189.82 | +0.83% | 34 | 33.67 | 33.16 | 0.18× |
| FEDERALBNKThe Federal Bank Limited | Bank | ₹332.75 | +0.00% | 34 | 34.83 | 20.41 | 2.94× |
| BAJAJHINDBajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited | FMCG | ₹19.53 | +0.77% | 34 | 42.48 | 27.30 | 0.28× |
| TATATECHTata Technologies Limited | IT | ₹722.45 | -4.78% | 33 | 32.25 | 11.70 | 2.25× |
| POLYPLEXPolyplex Corporation Limited | — | ₹1,079 | -0.52% | 33 | 35.24 | 37.82 | 1.25× |
| IDEAVodafone Idea Limited | Infrastructure | ₹13.92 | -2.11% | 33 | 42.46 | 24.23 | 0.86× |
| LAMBODHARALambodhara Textiles Limited | — | ₹120.21 | +1.24% | 30 | 42.12 | 28.66 | 0.07× |
| JUBLCPLJubilant Agri and Consumer Products Limited | Chemicals | ₹2,000 | -1.00% | 30 | 41.04 | 17.60 | 0.70× |
| DIXONDixon Technologies (India) Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹13,005 | -2.14% | 30 | 30.70 | 33.36 | 1.04× |
🛡️ Robustness — Band width (σ)
The published rule uses 2.0. If the edge vanishes one step either side, it was probably fitted to history.
| Band width (σ) | Trades | Win | Avg trade | PF | Median CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 2010 | 69.8% | +0.61% | 1.36 | +1.4% |
| 2.0 | 1271 | 67.7% | +0.55% | 1.29 | +0.6% |
| 2.5 | 554 | 68.1% | +1.00% | 1.55 | +1.0% |
Robust The average trade is positive at every tested setting. Profitable average trade in 61.5% of years with 5+ trades.
📅 By year (walk-forward view)
| Year | Trades | Win | Avg trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 97 | 74.2% | +2.23% |
| 2015 | 82 | 65.9% | +0.48% |
| 2016 | 73 | 58.9% | +0.19% |
| 2017 | 106 | 84.0% | +2.63% |
| 2018 | 103 | 56.3% | -0.28% |
| 2019 | 85 | 75.3% | +1.17% |
| 2020 | 77 | 57.1% | -4.60% |
| 2021 | 141 | 81.6% | +2.42% |
| 2022 | 87 | 62.1% | +0.07% |
| 2023 | 114 | 64.0% | -0.35% |
| 2024 | 133 | 72.2% | +1.53% |
| 2025 | 89 | 65.2% | -0.47% |
| 2026 | 84 | 48.8% | -0.40% |
Most recent trades in the test
| Stock | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASIANPAINT | 2026-08-19 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -6.80% |
| BAJAJ-AUTO | 2026-09-16 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -0.30% |
| BAJAJFINSV | 2026-09-07 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -6.06% |
| BAJFINANCE | 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -1.18% |
| CIPLA | 2026-08-27 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -0.95% |
| EICHERMOT | 2026-09-03 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -2.77% |
| ETERNAL | 2026-09-16 | 2026-09-18 (open) | +3.15% |
| GRASIM | 2026-09-16 | 2026-09-18 (open) | +0.40% |
| HINDALCO | 2026-09-14 | 2026-09-18 (open) | +0.31% |
| ICICIBANK | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -3.58% |
| INDIGO | 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -3.72% |
| NESTLEIND | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -1.99% |
| SHRIRAMFIN | 2026-09-02 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -3.82% |
| SUNPHARMA | 2026-09-14 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -0.35% |
| TITAN | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -3.74% |
In a genuine breakdown the lower band keeps falling; there is no stop in the pure rule.
Test assumptions: long only, one position per stock, next-open fills, 0.2% round-trip cost, split-adjusted prices without dividends, current Nifty 50 members (survivorship bias). Past results do not predict future returns.
Open the AI Backtester with these rules pre-filled, pick a stock and a date range, and add your own stop-loss or target.
⚠️ Educational technical analysis computed automatically from end-of-day NSE prices — not investment advice. Flash Finance is not SEBI-registered. Indicators describe what price has done; they do not predict what it will do. Verify levels on a live chart and manage risk before acting.
