Bollinger Band Reversion
Two-sigma moves inside an uptrend tend to snap back toward the mean.
▶ Entry
Close below the lower Bollinger Band (20,2) while above the 200-day SMA.
Screener form: close < bb_lower AND close > sma200 — Close < Bollinger lower and Close > SMA 200.
■ Exit
Close back above the middle band (20-day SMA).
Signals are read on the close; the backtest fills at the next session's open.
| Stock | Sector | Close | Chg | Score | RSI (14) | ADX (14) | Relative volume (RVOL) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPABHUSHAND. P. Abhushan Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹1,900.50 | -2.05% | 36 | 44.26 | 31.58 | 0.28× |
| HFCLHFCL Limited | Infrastructure | ₹219.73 | -5.00% | 33 | 39.25 | 12.94 | 0.29× |
| GKSLGujarat Kidney And Super Speciality Limited | Healthcare | ₹163.59 | +0.17% | 31 | 36.09 | 32.26 | 0.04× |
| RISHABHRishabh Instruments Limited | Electrical Equipment | ₹610.05 | -2.32% | 30 | 32.67 | 27.49 | 0.48× |
| RPGLIFERPG Life Sciences Limited | Pharma | ₹2,549.50 | -1.02% | 28 | 40.76 | 17.96 | 0.76× |
| KAPSTONKapston Services Limited | Commercial & Business Services | ₹483.25 | -1.32% | 23 | 32.45 | 37.34 | 2.73× |
| GREENPLYGreenply Industries Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹264.70 | -6.37% | 18 | 33.17 | 15.07 | 1.03× |
| BLUESTONEBlueStone Jewellery and Lifestyle Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹663.35 | -1.66% | 12 | 31.12 | 30.99 | 0.47× |
| SENORESSenores Pharmaceuticals Limited | Pharma | ₹1,119.60 | -1.26% | 11 | 32.34 | 22.34 | 1.38× |
👀 Setting up (37)
| Stock | Sector | Close | Chg | Score | RSI (14) | ADX (14) | Relative volume (RVOL) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBGNGGNG Electronics Limited | IT | ₹659.60 | +0.02% | 51 | 44.42 | 12.66 | 0.77× |
| NPSTNetwork People Services Technologies Limited | IT | ₹1,595.30 | -0.29% | 36 | 37.52 | 20.01 | 0.49× |
| DPABHUSHAND. P. Abhushan Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹1,900.50 | -2.05% | 36 | 44.26 | 31.58 | 0.28× |
| STLTECHSterlite Technologies Limited | Cables & Wires | ₹783.30 | -5.00% | 34 | 39.43 | 20.08 | 0.29× |
| HFCLHFCL Limited | Infrastructure | ₹219.73 | -5.00% | 33 | 39.25 | 12.94 | 0.29× |
| TMBTamilnad Mercantile Bank Limited | Bank | ₹784.85 | -2.06% | 32 | 33.03 | 23.50 | 1.28× |
| REDINGTONRedington Limited | Trading & Distribution | ₹330.45 | +1.07% | 31 | 33.04 | 32.16 | 1.14× |
| NEOGENNeogen Chemicals Limited | Chemicals | ₹2,095.40 | -3.50% | 31 | 36.31 | 22.58 | 1.07× |
| GKSLGujarat Kidney And Super Speciality Limited | Healthcare | ₹163.59 | +0.17% | 31 | 36.09 | 32.26 | 0.04× |
| ARIHANTCAPArihant Capital Markets Limited | Financial Services | ₹86.80 | +1.79% | 31 | 43.01 | 26.08 | 0.68× |
| RISHABHRishabh Instruments Limited | Electrical Equipment | ₹610.05 | -2.32% | 30 | 32.67 | 27.49 | 0.48× |
| RPGLIFERPG Life Sciences Limited | Pharma | ₹2,549.50 | -1.02% | 28 | 40.76 | 17.96 | 0.76× |
| KABRAEXTRUKabra Extrusion Technik Limited | Engineering & Capital Goods | ₹672.20 | -3.30% | 28 | 41.68 | 21.70 | 0.81× |
| AXISCADESAXISCADES Technologies Limited | Defence | ₹1,841.40 | -1.84% | 27 | 40.52 | 19.83 | 0.44× |
| WELCORPWelspun Corp Limited | Metal | ₹2,315.00 | -1.14% | 24 | 40.90 | 21.60 | 0.66× |
| VMARTV-Mart Retail Limited | Retail | ₹738.15 | -0.18% | 24 | 31.87 | 19.41 | 0.47× |
| BALRAMCHINBalrampur Chini Mills Limited | FMCG | ₹599.90 | +1.76% | 24 | 34.68 | 25.04 | 1.08× |
| MODISONLTDMODISON LIMITED | Electrical Equipment | ₹331.75 | -3.63% | 23 | 28.89 | 26.49 | 2.08× |
| KAPSTONKapston Services Limited | Commercial & Business Services | ₹483.25 | -1.32% | 23 | 32.45 | 37.34 | 2.73× |
| TARSONSTarsons Products Limited | Healthcare | ₹288.85 | -0.74% | 21 | 35.98 | 20.98 | 0.82× |
| SYNCOMFSyncom Formulations (India) Limited | Pharma | ₹19.20 | -0.21% | 20 | 39.06 | 22.30 | 0.38× |
| INOXINDIAINOX India Limited | Packaging | ₹1,843.90 | -0.88% | 20 | 34.58 | 20.10 | 0.52× |
| GREENPLYGreenply Industries Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹264.70 | -6.37% | 18 | 33.17 | 15.07 | 1.03× |
| MOREPENLABMorepen Laboratories Limited | Pharma | ₹107.69 | -4.99% | 16 | 39.33 | 20.92 | 0.08× |
| E2EE2E Networks Limited | IT | ₹496.45 | -4.60% | 16 | 29.47 | 22.82 | 1.25× |
| CUBCity Union Bank Limited | Bank | ₹210.40 | -1.77% | 16 | 41.62 | 12.39 | 1.93× |
| VIDYAWIRESVidya Wires Limited | Metal | ₹80.17 | -1.35% | 15 | 32.95 | 17.79 | 0.58× |
| MANINDSMan Industries (India) Limited | Metal | ₹725.50 | -0.03% | 15 | 38.26 | 25.34 | 0.96× |
| AEGISLOGAegis Logistics Limited | Oil & Gas | ₹1,100.10 | +0.31% | 15 | 32.66 | 24.80 | 1.24× |
| ARTEMISMEDArtemis Medicare Services Limited | Healthcare | ₹283.60 | -3.27% | 14 | 34.13 | 26.86 | 0.66× |
🛡️ Robustness — Band width (σ)
The published rule uses 2.0. If the edge vanishes one step either side, it was probably fitted to history.
| Band width (σ) | Trades | Win | Avg trade | PF | Median CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 2005 | 70.0% | +0.64% | 1.37 | +1.4% |
| 2.0 | 1264 | 67.6% | +0.58% | 1.3 | +0.7% |
| 2.5 | 556 | 68.5% | +1.08% | 1.6 | +0.9% |
Robust The average trade is positive at every tested setting. Profitable average trade in 61.5% of years with 5+ trades.
📅 By year (walk-forward view)
| Year | Trades | Win | Avg trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 92 | 75.0% | +2.30% |
| 2015 | 79 | 65.8% | +0.61% |
| 2016 | 73 | 58.9% | +0.19% |
| 2017 | 102 | 83.3% | +2.62% |
| 2018 | 101 | 53.5% | -0.56% |
| 2019 | 82 | 75.6% | +1.15% |
| 2020 | 77 | 57.1% | -4.60% |
| 2021 | 140 | 81.4% | +2.52% |
| 2022 | 89 | 64.0% | +0.51% |
| 2023 | 113 | 63.7% | -0.39% |
| 2024 | 135 | 72.6% | +1.61% |
| 2025 | 92 | 66.3% | -0.02% |
| 2026 | 89 | 49.4% | -0.66% |
Most recent trades in the test
| Stock | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADANIENT | 2026-10-08 | 2026-11-02 (open) | -4.74% |
| ASIANPAINT | 2026-08-19 | 2026-11-02 (open) | -10.87% |
| BAJAJFINSV | 2026-09-07 | 2026-11-02 (open) | -14.22% |
| SUNPHARMA | 2026-09-15 | 2026-11-02 | -4.75% |
| GRASIM | 2026-09-16 | 2026-10-30 | -8.49% |
| TITAN | 2026-09-08 | 2026-10-30 | -10.99% |
| ADANIPORTS | 2026-10-26 | 2026-10-29 | +5.30% |
| APOLLOHOSP | 2026-10-01 | 2026-10-29 | +0.56% |
| BAJAJ-AUTO | 2026-09-16 | 2026-10-28 | -6.49% |
| ETERNAL | 2026-10-23 | 2026-10-27 | +6.14% |
| BAJFINANCE | 2026-09-04 | 2026-10-19 | -6.43% |
| EICHERMOT | 2026-09-03 | 2026-10-16 | -6.53% |
| NESTLEIND | 2026-09-08 | 2026-10-15 | -1.44% |
| SHRIRAMFIN | 2026-09-02 | 2026-10-14 | -6.05% |
| ICICIBANK | 2026-09-10 | 2026-10-08 | -2.79% |
In a genuine breakdown the lower band keeps falling; there is no stop in the pure rule.
Test assumptions: long only, one position per stock, next-open fills, 0.2% round-trip cost, split-adjusted prices without dividends, current Nifty 50 members (survivorship bias). Past results do not predict future returns.
Open the AI Backtester with these rules pre-filled, pick a stock and a date range, and add your own stop-loss or target.
⚠️ Educational technical analysis computed automatically from end-of-day NSE prices — not investment advice. Flash Finance is not SEBI-registered. Indicators describe what price has done; they do not predict what it will do. Verify levels on a live chart and manage risk before acting.
