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Stretched Below 20 EMA

Rubber-band trading: sharp dips away from the short-term average tend to revert.

Mean reversion Data as of 2026-11-02 close
1 · Rules

▶ Entry

Close 7%+ below the 20-day EMA while above the 200-day SMA.

Screener form: pct_vs_ema20 <= -7 AND close > sma200 — % vs EMA 20 ≤ -7 and Close > SMA 200.

■ Exit

Close back above the 20-day EMA.

Signals are read on the close; the backtest fills at the next session's open.

2 · Stocks triggering the entry today (58)
Stock Sector Close Chg Score RSI (14)ADX (14)Relative volume (RVOL)
TBZTribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Limited Consumer Durables ₹596.75 -1.82% 45 44.78 25.76 0.56×
SHANTIGOLDShanti Gold International Limited Consumer Durables ₹302.50 +2.44% 39 41.69 35.99 0.81×
DPABHUSHAND. P. Abhushan Limited Consumer Durables ₹1,900.50 -2.05% 36 44.26 31.58 0.28×
STLTECHSterlite Technologies Limited Cables & Wires ₹783.30 -5.00% 34 39.43 20.08 0.29×
HFCLHFCL Limited Infrastructure ₹219.73 -5.00% 33 39.25 12.94 0.29×
PAUSHAKLTDPaushak Limited Chemicals ₹606.25 +3.07% 32 40.01 16.40 0.06×
REDINGTONRedington Limited Trading & Distribution ₹330.45 +1.07% 31 33.04 32.16 1.14×
NEOGENNeogen Chemicals Limited Chemicals ₹2,095.40 -3.50% 31 36.31 22.58 1.07×
GKSLGujarat Kidney And Super Speciality Limited Healthcare ₹163.59 +0.17% 31 36.09 32.26 0.04×
GANDHARGandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited Oil & Gas ₹259.42 +3.91% 31 42.21 24.23 0.77×
CYIENTDLMCyient DLM Limited Defence ₹744.00 -0.83% 31 37.28 34.16 0.34×
RISHABHRishabh Instruments Limited Electrical Equipment ₹610.05 -2.32% 30 32.67 27.49 0.48×
OMAXEOmaxe Limited Infrastructure ₹94.05 +3.85% 30 38.95 17.99 0.56×
SHAREINDIAShare India Securities Limited Financial Services ₹170.23 -3.26% 28 35.04 23.82 0.97×
RPGLIFERPG Life Sciences Limited Pharma ₹2,549.50 -1.02% 28 40.76 17.96 0.76×
KABRAEXTRUKabra Extrusion Technik Limited Engineering & Capital Goods ₹672.20 -3.30% 28 41.68 21.70 0.81×
STLNETWORKSTL Networks Limited Infrastructure ₹35.49 -4.65% 27 41.66 34.03 1.27×
MVGJLManoj Vaibhav Gems N Jewellers Limited Consumer Durables ₹171.76 +4.99% 27 38.01 27.80 0.73×
BALAMINESBalaji Amines Limited Chemicals ₹1,811.00 +2.56% 27 36.30 22.67 0.50×
FAIRCHEMORFairchem Organics Limited Chemicals ₹649.15 +2.04% 25 38.51 28.44 0.11×
ASIANENEAsian Energy Services Limited Oil & Gas ₹398.10 -3.02% 25 38.48 17.69 1.27×
WELCORPWelspun Corp Limited Metal ₹2,315.00 -1.14% 24 40.90 21.60 0.66×
SHIVALIKShivalik Rasayan Limited Chemicals ₹296.75 -0.93% 24 33.82 29.25 1.26×
QUADFUTUREQuadrant Future Tek Limited Cables & Wires ₹401.00 +4.06% 24 36.85 32.27 0.41×
OCCLLTDOCCL Limited Chemicals ₹163.83 -2.64% 24 41.40 23.20 0.36×
BALRAMCHINBalrampur Chini Mills Limited FMCG ₹599.90 +1.76% 24 34.68 25.04 1.08×
MODISONLTDMODISON LIMITED Electrical Equipment ₹331.75 -3.63% 23 28.89 26.49 2.08×
KAPSTONKapston Services Limited Commercial & Business Services ₹483.25 -1.32% 23 32.45 37.34 2.73×
FCLFineotex Chemical Limited Chemicals ₹48.50 +0.23% 23 39.86 21.36 0.34×
EMILElectronics Mart India Limited Retail ₹155.27 +2.33% 23 35.33 32.68 0.50×
DEEDEVDEE Development Engineers Limited Metal ₹523.70 +3.19% 23 34.85 31.06 0.47×
MTARTECHMtar Technologies Limited Engineering & Capital Goods ₹6,508.50 -4.82% 22 38.60 21.17 1.66×
DHAMPURSUGDhampur Sugar Mills Limited FMCG ₹163.12 +2.21% 22 40.80 22.55 0.39×
TARSONSTarsons Products Limited Healthcare ₹288.85 -0.74% 21 35.98 20.98 0.82×
SYNCOMFSyncom Formulations (India) Limited Pharma ₹19.20 -0.21% 20 39.06 22.30 0.38×
YASHOYasho Industries Limited Chemicals ₹3,259.90 +1.10% 19 38.88 29.15 0.71×
INDORAMAIndo Rama Synthetics (India) Limited Textiles ₹74.18 +1.46% 19 37.82 28.47 0.31×
BIRLACABLEBirla Cable Limited Cables & Wires ₹301.05 -4.66% 19 40.29 23.48 0.76×
SUBEXLTDSubex Limited IT ₹16.42 +0.55% 18 39.59 26.73 0.63×
GREENPLYGreenply Industries Limited Consumer Durables ₹264.70 -6.37% 18 33.17 15.07 1.03×
COMSYNCommercial Syn Bags Limited Packaging ₹205.59 +1.23% 17 24.61 32.14 3.20×
SMLMAHSML Mahindra Limited Auto ₹4,904.60 +3.81% 16 36.97 30.23 0.73×
MOREPENLABMorepen Laboratories Limited Pharma ₹107.69 -4.99% 16 39.33 20.92 0.08×
FINCABLESFinolex Cables Limited Infrastructure ₹1,137.40 -0.23% 16 34.60 38.76 0.57×
E2EE2E Networks Limited IT ₹496.45 -4.60% 16 29.47 22.82 1.25×
VIDYAWIRESVidya Wires Limited Metal ₹80.17 -1.35% 15 32.95 17.79 0.58×
MANINDSMan Industries (India) Limited Metal ₹725.50 -0.03% 15 38.26 25.34 0.96×
INDOTECHIndo Tech Transformers Limited Electrical Equipment ₹2,640.00 -2.79% 15 32.52 34.35 0.17×
BEPLBhansali Engineering Polymers Limited Oil & Gas ₹106.78 +0.63% 15 32.92 29.86 0.35×
AEGISLOGAegis Logistics Limited Oil & Gas ₹1,100.10 +0.31% 15 32.66 24.80 1.24×

👀 Setting up (123)

Close to the entry: pct_vs_ema20 <= -5 AND close > sma200
Stock Sector Close Chg Score RSI (14)ADX (14)Relative volume (RVOL)
TBZTribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri Limited Consumer Durables ₹596.75 -1.82% 45 44.78 25.76 0.56×
SKYGOLDSKY GOLD AND DIAMONDS LIMITED Consumer Durables ₹870.75 -1.41% 45 44.27 33.77 0.36×
BETABeta Drugs Limited Pharma ₹1,775.10 -1.30% 43 41.96 14.05 0.14×
PREMIERPOLPremier Polyfilm Limited Plastic Products ₹90.93 -0.08% 42 45.39 29.14 0.10×
SHANTIGOLDShanti Gold International Limited Consumer Durables ₹302.50 +2.44% 39 41.69 35.99 0.81×
ANTELOPUSAntelopus Selan Energy Limited Oil & Gas ₹1,002.65 +0.52% 38 44.15 21.12 0.26×
DALMIASUGDalmia Bharat Sugar and Industries Limited FMCG ₹407.75 +3.10% 37 42.85 19.38 0.53×
NPSTNetwork People Services Technologies Limited IT ₹1,595.30 -0.29% 36 37.52 20.01 0.49×
DPABHUSHAND. P. Abhushan Limited Consumer Durables ₹1,900.50 -2.05% 36 44.26 31.58 0.28×
VSSLVardhman Special Steels Limited Metal ₹338.35 +3.05% 35 40.47 20.36 0.95×
SMCGLOBALSMC Global Securities Limited Financial Services ₹92.32 +1.67% 35 43.38 35.97 0.06×
SYRMASyrma SGS Technology Limited Electronic Components ₹1,512.00 -6.97% 34 43.65 20.56 4.27×
STLTECHSterlite Technologies Limited Cables & Wires ₹783.30 -5.00% 34 39.43 20.08 0.29×
DPWIRESD P Wires Limited Metal ₹173.94 -2.73% 34 44.35 22.82 0.10×
RAMRATRam Ratna Wires Limited Metal ₹519.95 +2.53% 33 40.02 21.94 0.88×
MUKANDLTDMukand Limited Metal ₹145.77 +3.05% 33 40.62 29.29 0.38×
INDOAMINIndo Amines Limited Chemicals ₹123.90 +4.02% 33 40.08 28.15 0.17×
IBULLSLTDIndiabulls Limited Commercial & Business Services ₹30.30 +0.43% 33 43.57 26.46 0.47×
HFCLHFCL Limited Infrastructure ₹219.73 -5.00% 33 39.25 12.94 0.29×
TMBTamilnad Mercantile Bank Limited Bank ₹784.85 -2.06% 32 33.03 23.50 1.28×
PAUSHAKLTDPaushak Limited Chemicals ₹606.25 +3.07% 32 40.01 16.40 0.06×
KTKBANKThe Karnataka Bank Limited Bank ₹298.40 +0.07% 32 36.71 24.26 0.63×
KOPRANKopran Limited Pharma ₹242.21 +1.32% 32 42.41 20.27 0.49×
REDINGTONRedington Limited Trading & Distribution ₹330.45 +1.07% 31 33.04 32.16 1.14×
NEOGENNeogen Chemicals Limited Chemicals ₹2,095.40 -3.50% 31 36.31 22.58 1.07×
MMPMMP Industries Limited Metal ₹432.45 -5.40% 31 42.71 26.96 2.14×
MANALIPETCManali Petrochemicals Limited Oil & Gas ₹71.99 +5.28% 31 40.18 25.12 0.28×
LOKESHMACHLokesh Machines Limited Engineering & Capital Goods ₹364.75 +0.76% 31 44.90 23.55 0.20×
GKSLGujarat Kidney And Super Speciality Limited Healthcare ₹163.59 +0.17% 31 36.09 32.26 0.04×
GANDHARGandhar Oil Refinery (India) Limited Oil & Gas ₹259.42 +3.91% 31 42.21 24.23 0.77×
3 · Backtest — Nifty 50 stocks since 2014
232
Trades
72.4%
Win rate
+1.81%
Average trade
1.75
Profit factor
16.0d
Avg holding
+0.6%
Median CAGR / stock
Buy & hold +16.1%
-14.1%
Median max drawdown
Buy & hold -53.7%
2.6%
Time in market
2.0%
Stocks where it beat B&H

🛡️ Robustness — Stretch %

The published rule uses 7. If the edge vanishes one step either side, it was probably fitted to history.

Stretch %TradesWinAvg tradePFMedian CAGR
561873.9%+1.57%1.81+1.0%
723272.4%+1.81%1.75+0.6%
105472.2%+1.65%1.48+0.0%

Robust The average trade is positive at every tested setting. Profitable average trade in 84.6% of years with 5+ trades.

📅 By year (walk-forward view)

YearTradesWinAvg trade
20142075.0%+4.56%
20152387.0%+1.05%
20161376.9%+3.07%
20171080.0%+3.96%
20182755.6%+0.87%
20191163.6%+1.20%
20202454.2%-4.94%
20213183.9%+5.48%
20222470.8%+1.50%
2023540.0%-8.60%
20242290.9%+4.90%
20251154.5%+1.22%
20261181.8%+2.02%
Most recent trades in the test
StockEntryExitReturn
ADANIENT2026-10-092026-11-02 (open)+0.19%
HINDALCO2026-06-172026-07-30-1.92%
ONGC2026-06-012026-07-09-6.55%
SBIN2026-05-122026-06-09+0.63%
EICHERMOT2026-03-132026-04-09+3.90%
JSWSTEEL2026-03-162026-04-09+5.65%
SBIN2026-03-162026-04-09+0.88%
SHRIRAMFIN2026-03-202026-04-09+4.79%
HINDALCO2026-03-242026-04-02+5.67%
TATASTEEL2026-03-162026-03-23+5.25%
MARUTI2026-01-292026-02-12+3.75%
BSE2025-08-282025-09-08+4.79%
KOTAKBANK2025-07-292025-08-20+2.51%
BSE2025-07-092025-08-14-0.20%
HCLTECH2025-01-282025-03-25-5.44%
4 · Risk

Stretched can get more stretched in a sell-off.

Test assumptions: long only, one position per stock, next-open fills, 0.2% round-trip cost, split-adjusted prices without dividends, current Nifty 50 members (survivorship bias). Past results do not predict future returns.

5 · Test it on any stock

Open the AI Backtester with these rules pre-filled, pick a stock and a date range, and add your own stop-loss or target.

Buy when close is more than 7 percent below the 20-day EMA and close is above the 200-day SMA. Sell when close rises above the 20-day EMA.
🧪 Backtest on any stock Open the entry in the screener
🔗 Other mean reversion strategies
RSI(14) Oversold BounceBollinger Band Reversion

⚠️ Educational technical analysis computed automatically from end-of-day NSE prices — not investment advice. Flash Finance is not SEBI-registered. Indicators describe what price has done; they do not predict what it will do. Verify levels on a live chart and manage risk before acting.

⚠️ How this site is made: Market data pages are computed automatically from NSE/BSE publications and company filings; news articles and announcement analyses are written with AI assistance, with a human in the loop: our editors review what the AI produces. Both can contain errors. Verify with the original sources before any investment decision. Not investment advice; Flash Finance is not SEBI-registered. How we use AI