Volatility Contraction Breakout
Quiet markets precede loud ones — buy the first decisive move out of a squeeze.
Breakout Data as of 2026-09-18 close
1 · Rules
▶ Entry
Bollinger width in the bottom 20% of its 6-month range, then a close above the upper band.
Screener form: vcp_breakout — Volatility-contraction breakout.
■ Exit
Close below the 20-day SMA.
Signals are read on the close; the backtest fills at the next session's open.
2 · Stocks triggering the entry today (32)
| Stock | Sector | Close | Chg | Score | RSI (14) | ADX (14) | Relative volume (RVOL) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUROPHARMAAurobindo Pharma Limited | Pharma | ₹1,734 | +2.60% | 94 | 63.54 | 21.65 | 1.64× |
| ACMESOLARAcme Solar Holdings Limited | Infrastructure | ₹435.25 | +5.82% | 87 | 66.98 | 26.90 | 6.06× |
| TALBROAUTOTalbros Automotive Components Limited | Auto | ₹476.70 | +9.54% | 86 | 74.86 | 21.29 | 8.45× |
| SAMBHVSambhv Steel Tubes Limited | Metal | ₹147.57 | +14.32% | 83 | 72.07 | 37.03 | 16.58× |
| HOMEFIRSTHome First Finance Company India Limited | Financial Services | ₹1,241 | +5.80% | 81 | 62.15 | 22.62 | 4.91× |
| APARINDSApar Industries Limited | — | ₹18,858 | +5.94% | 81 | 65.32 | 32.22 | 2.37× |
| MACPOWERMacpower CNC Machines Limited | — | ₹2,104 | +9.52% | 80 | 69.51 | 36.39 | 5.01× |
| ONEPOINTOne Point One Solutions Limited | IT | ₹59.64 | +0.85% | 79 | 62.79 | 21.07 | 0.50× |
| NELCONELCO Limited | Infrastructure | ₹1,012 | +4.83% | 79 | 61.08 | 15.70 | 2.37× |
| SANSTARSanstar Limited | — | ₹115.70 | +0.14% | 77 | 62.24 | 22.92 | 0.93× |
| IPCALABIPCA Laboratories Limited | Pharma | ₹2,010 | +1.99% | 77 | 67.11 | 27.56 | 2.20× |
| ABBOTINDIAAbbott India Limited | Pharma | ₹27,270 | +5.25% | 76 | 62.08 | 23.02 | 5.07× |
| KPILKalpataru Projects International Limited | Infrastructure | ₹1,446 | +3.30% | 75 | 61.12 | 38.96 | 1.50× |
| EMILElectronics Mart India Limited | — | ₹196.28 | +6.06% | 75 | 65.37 | 29.42 | 8.19× |
| ORIENTHOTOriental Hotels Limited | — | ₹143.45 | +1.73% | 72 | 60.99 | 21.38 | 0.96× |
| SCHAEFFLERSchaeffler India Limited | — | ₹4,218 | +5.68% | 71 | 68.28 | 16.80 | 3.57× |
| BELRISEBelrise Industries Limited | Auto | ₹240.18 | +4.71% | 71 | 59.90 | 11.28 | 4.13× |
| APLLTDAlembic Pharmaceuticals Limited | Pharma | ₹845.75 | +2.39% | 70 | 60.72 | 18.89 | 4.63× |
| KIMSKrishna Institute of Medical Sciences Limited | Healthcare | ₹809.85 | +2.27% | 69 | 65.38 | 19.25 | 2.38× |
| ASKAUTOLTDASK Automotive Limited | Auto | ₹656.25 | +6.03% | 69 | 61.90 | 39.47 | 1.84× |
| LUMAXTECHLumax Auto Technologies Limited | Auto | ₹2,103 | +4.20% | 68 | 64.89 | 27.50 | 1.27× |
| DHARMAJDharmaj Crop Guard Limited | Chemicals | ₹276.15 | +1.86% | 68 | 63.12 | 19.95 | 0.80× |
| COLPALColgate Palmolive (India) Limited | FMCG | ₹1,918 | +4.21% | 65 | 56.59 | 29.01 | 1.47× |
| CENTRALBKCentral Bank of India | Bank | ₹31.73 | +4.37% | 64 | 62.41 | 13.44 | 9.89× |
| VISAKAINDVisaka Industries Limited | Infrastructure | ₹97.36 | +7.21% | 62 | 62.56 | 16.93 | 3.01× |
| VIJAYAVijaya Diagnostic Centre Limited | Healthcare | ₹1,559 | +3.51% | 62 | 63.96 | 26.77 | 1.93× |
| GPTINFRAGPT Infraprojects Limited | Infrastructure | ₹118.96 | +4.76% | 54 | 62.96 | 12.12 | 15.77× |
| HDBFSHDB Financial Services Limited | Financial Services | ₹698.40 | +2.49% | 53 | 58.58 | 11.59 | 1.17× |
| COROMANDELCoromandel International Limited | Chemicals | ₹2,000 | +3.61% | 53 | 56.29 | 14.24 | 2.30× |
| DBLDilip Buildcon Limited | Infrastructure | ₹425.50 | +4.20% | 52 | 60.40 | 22.40 | 1.51× |
| BAJAJHFLBajaj Housing Finance Limited | Financial Services | ₹85.58 | +3.48% | 47 | 57.52 | 10.85 | 1.98× |
| TECHNOETechno Electric & Engineering Company Limited | Infrastructure | ₹1,030 | +4.65% | 46 | 60.33 | 11.88 | 2.17× |
👀 Setting up (137)
| Stock | Sector | Close | Chg | Score | RSI (14) | ADX (14) | Relative volume (RVOL) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACMESOLARAcme Solar Holdings Limited | Infrastructure | ₹435.25 | +5.82% | 87 | 66.98 | 26.90 | 6.06× |
| METROPOLISMetropolis Healthcare Limited | Healthcare | ₹597.45 | +1.90% | 86 | 58.79 | 13.43 | 0.86× |
| LGEINDIALG Electronics India Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹1,697 | +2.66% | 86 | 61.38 | 28.08 | 2.86× |
| SOMANYCERASomany Ceramics Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹572.60 | +1.19% | 84 | 62.38 | 28.60 | 0.70× |
| ANANDRATHIAnand Rathi Wealth Limited | Financial Services | ₹2,229 | +1.00% | 84 | 61.53 | 31.25 | 4.35× |
| GLANDGland Pharma Limited | Pharma | ₹2,962 | +1.86% | 83 | 59.57 | 30.05 | 0.83× |
| DYNAMATECHDynamatic Technologies Limited | — | ₹12,061 | +2.05% | 83 | 60.94 | 40.06 | 0.77× |
| COMSYNCommercial Syn Bags Limited | — | ₹306.55 | +4.62% | 83 | 66.88 | 32.94 | 2.16× |
| TBOTEKTBO Tek Limited | — | ₹1,711 | +3.82% | 82 | 56.19 | 23.50 | 1.51× |
| MEDANTAGlobal Health Limited | Healthcare | ₹1,499 | +5.29% | 81 | 58.98 | 24.00 | 2.41× |
| HOMEFIRSTHome First Finance Company India Limited | Financial Services | ₹1,241 | +5.80% | 81 | 62.15 | 22.62 | 4.91× |
| APARINDSApar Industries Limited | — | ₹18,858 | +5.94% | 81 | 65.32 | 32.22 | 2.37× |
| MACPOWERMacpower CNC Machines Limited | — | ₹2,104 | +9.52% | 80 | 69.51 | 36.39 | 5.01× |
| JSWINFRAJSW Infrastructure Limited | — | ₹348.25 | +6.61% | 80 | 59.81 | 16.42 | 11.37× |
| FINEORGFine Organic Industries Limited | Chemicals | ₹5,199 | -0.06% | 80 | 54.20 | 20.35 | 1.72× |
| APOLLOHOSPApollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited | Healthcare | ₹8,944 | +2.01% | 80 | 56.97 | 13.65 | 1.39× |
| TVSSCSTVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited | — | ₹133.85 | +2.89% | 79 | 57.30 | 16.18 | 0.75× |
| PIRAMALFINPiramal Finance Limited | — | ₹2,300 | +2.06% | 79 | 60.79 | 22.48 | 1.17× |
| NELCONELCO Limited | Infrastructure | ₹1,012 | +4.83% | 79 | 61.08 | 15.70 | 2.37× |
| KRISHIVALKrishival Foods Limited | FMCG | ₹419.30 | +2.41% | 79 | 58.07 | 15.48 | 0.27× |
| JSWDULUXJSW Dulux Limited | Consumer Durables | ₹3,189 | +3.73% | 79 | 58.21 | 26.61 | 1.03× |
| AKUMSAkums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited | Pharma | ₹783.70 | +2.22% | 79 | 60.81 | 36.57 | 1.01× |
| VARROCVarroc Engineering Limited | Auto | ₹861.55 | +1.82% | 77 | 58.72 | 38.40 | 0.61× |
| SANSTARSanstar Limited | — | ₹115.70 | +0.14% | 77 | 62.24 | 22.92 | 0.93× |
| PCBLPCBL Chemical Limited | Chemicals | ₹336.70 | +2.22% | 77 | 59.08 | 23.65 | 0.85× |
| IPCALABIPCA Laboratories Limited | Pharma | ₹2,010 | +1.99% | 77 | 67.11 | 27.56 | 2.20× |
| ARIHANTCAPArihant Capital Markets Limited | Financial Services | ₹80.29 | -1.13% | 77 | 56.39 | 28.87 | 0.41× |
| AARTIDRUGSAarti Drugs Limited | Pharma | ₹431.80 | +0.81% | 77 | 56.83 | 30.97 | 0.60× |
| SHIVAUMShiv Aum Steels Limited | — | ₹468.30 | +0.05% | 76 | 68.19 | 31.40 | 0.05× |
| KOVAIKovai Medical | Healthcare | ₹6,226 | +1.87% | 76 | 58.17 | 30.82 | 0.67× |
3 · Backtest — Nifty 50 stocks since 2014
1,744
Trades
38.9%
Win rate
+0.95%
Average trade
1.45
Profit factor
15.7d
Avg holding
+1.4%
Median CAGR / stock
Buy & hold +15.8%
-32.1%
Median max drawdown
Buy & hold -53.7%
19.0%
Time in market
2.0%
Stocks where it beat B&H
🛡️ Robustness — Squeeze percentile
The published rule uses 20. If the edge vanishes one step either side, it was probably fitted to history.
| Squeeze percentile | Trades | Win | Avg trade | PF | Median CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1471 | 38.6% | +0.92% | 1.44 | +2.0% |
| 20 | 1744 | 38.9% | +0.95% | 1.45 | +1.4% |
| 30 | 2100 | 38.7% | +0.88% | 1.41 | +2.0% |
Robust The average trade is positive at every tested setting. Profitable average trade in 69.2% of years with 5+ trades.
📅 By year (walk-forward view)
| Year | Trades | Win | Avg trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 133 | 43.6% | +2.81% |
| 2015 | 118 | 34.7% | +0.20% |
| 2016 | 138 | 40.6% | +0.98% |
| 2017 | 141 | 48.9% | +1.78% |
| 2018 | 111 | 43.2% | +2.20% |
| 2019 | 128 | 37.5% | -0.70% |
| 2020 | 123 | 44.7% | +2.16% |
| 2021 | 180 | 45.0% | +3.31% |
| 2022 | 145 | 30.3% | -0.71% |
| 2023 | 162 | 43.2% | +1.29% |
| 2024 | 131 | 35.1% | +0.33% |
| 2025 | 150 | 24.0% | -1.29% |
| 2026 | 84 | 31.0% | -1.21% |
Most recent trades in the test
| Stock | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| COALINDIA | 2026-09-03 | 2026-09-18 (open) | -3.06% |
| MAXHEALTH | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-18 (open) | +0.68% |
| APOLLOHOSP | 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-16 | -2.91% |
| KOTAKBANK | 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-16 | +2.30% |
| AXISBANK | 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-09 | -3.25% |
| BAJAJ-AUTO | 2026-07-14 | 2026-09-08 | +14.60% |
| ETERNAL | 2026-07-29 | 2026-09-07 | +4.90% |
| SUNPHARMA | 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-04 | -2.80% |
| ADANIENT | 2026-08-26 | 2026-09-01 | -7.00% |
| HINDALCO | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-28 | +3.31% |
| SHRIRAMFIN | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-28 | +2.11% |
| M&M | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-27 | +3.75% |
| BAJAJFINSV | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-25 | -2.42% |
| SBIN | 2026-08-07 | 2026-08-20 | -2.71% |
| KOTAKBANK | 2026-08-04 | 2026-08-19 | -2.34% |
4 · Risk
Direction of the expansion is unknown in advance; false breaks back into the range are common.
Test assumptions: long only, one position per stock, next-open fills, 0.2% round-trip cost, split-adjusted prices without dividends, current Nifty 50 members (survivorship bias). Past results do not predict future returns.
5 · Test it on any stock
Open the AI Backtester with these rules pre-filled, pick a stock and a date range, and add your own stop-loss or target.
Buy when close rises above the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2) after the band width has been low, sell when close falls below the 20-day SMA.
🔗 Other breakout strategies
⚠️ Educational technical analysis computed automatically from end-of-day NSE prices — not investment advice. Flash Finance is not SEBI-registered. Indicators describe what price has done; they do not predict what it will do. Verify levels on a live chart and manage risk before acting.
