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Volatility Contraction Breakout

Quiet markets precede loud ones — buy the first decisive move out of a squeeze. The library backtest ranks band width against its own 6-month range; the AI Backtester link approximates the squeeze as the upper band sitting within 5% of the middle band, because that tool has no percentile ranking.

Breakout Data as of 2026-11-02 close
1 · Rules

▶ Entry

Bollinger width in the bottom 20% of its 6-month range, then a close above the upper band.

Screener form: vcp_breakout — Volatility-contraction breakout.

■ Exit

Close below the 20-day SMA.

Signals are read on the close; the backtest fills at the next session's open.

2 · Stocks triggering the entry today (11)
Stock Sector Close Chg Score RSI (14)ADX (14)Relative volume (RVOL)
SHREEJISPGShreeji Shipping Global Limited Infrastructure ₹873.65 +3.60% 89 71.73 26.54 0.75×
PETRONETPetronet LNG Limited Oil & Gas ₹300.95 +3.96% 89 59.41 16.85 1.93×
RATNAVEERRatnaveer Precision Engineering Limited Metal ₹379.20 +5.26% 87 69.78 31.21 1.94×
ZENTECZen Technologies Limited Defence ₹1,720.60 +8.32% 75 58.96 23.10 17.80×
INDGNIndegene Limited Healthcare ₹619.40 +5.56% 71 60.22 14.39 5.51×
OILOil India Limited Oil & Gas ₹461.90 +1.74% 70 54.35 17.08 2.29×
NHNarayana Hrudayalaya Ltd. Healthcare ₹1,834.20 +6.63% 69 61.32 29.64 5.10×
JSWCEMENTJSW Cement Limited Infrastructure ₹119.96 +3.86% 65 61.42 20.01 1.23×
SBINState Bank of India Bank ₹987.00 +2.61% 64 56.03 25.88 1.11×
ONGCOil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited Oil & Gas ₹234.83 +4.19% 64 61.04 16.36 1.14×
TATACOMMTata Communications Limited Infrastructure ₹1,755.50 +4.78% 62 57.43 18.68 0.59×

👀 Setting up (52)

Close to the entry: squeeze_on AND close > sma50
Stock Sector Close Chg Score RSI (14)ADX (14)Relative volume (RVOL)
GESHIPThe Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited Infrastructure ₹1,600.40 +0.43% 91 63.29 27.19 0.44×
PETRONETPetronet LNG Limited Oil & Gas ₹300.95 +3.96% 89 59.41 16.85 1.93×
RATNAVEERRatnaveer Precision Engineering Limited Metal ₹379.20 +5.26% 87 69.78 31.21 1.94×
SPECTRUMSpectrum Electrical Industries Limited Electrical Equipment ₹3,982.20 +0.71% 85 69.20 42.01 1.24×
IIFLCAPSIIFL Capital Services Limited Financial Services ₹348.00 +0.04% 84 59.28 23.21 1.17×
GLOBALGlobal Education Limited Media ₹145.70 +1.36% 84 65.73 26.73 0.61×
CEIGALLCeigall India Limited Infrastructure ₹392.45 +0.58% 84 58.66 24.42 0.56×
MANOMAYManomay Tex India Limited Textiles ₹246.16 -0.66% 80 58.95 22.09 0.03×
CHENNPETROChennai Petroleum Corporation Limited Oil & Gas ₹1,546.00 +2.28% 77 57.32 19.42 0.53×
WESTLIFEWESTLIFE FOODWORLD LIMITED Hotels & Resorts ₹611.35 +2.96% 76 59.43 35.24 0.38×
VADILALINDVadilal Industries Limited FMCG ₹7,431.00 -0.82% 74 55.42 12.06 2.36×
GRAUWEILGrauer & Weil Chemicals ₹80.81 +0.66% 73 54.03 13.71 0.63×
LOTUSDEVSri Lotus Developers and Realty Limited Realty ₹248.03 +0.83% 71 61.83 20.20 1.69×
INDGNIndegene Limited Healthcare ₹619.40 +5.56% 71 60.22 14.39 5.51×
UNITEDPOLYUnited Polyfab Gujarat Limited Textiles ₹53.27 -1.84% 70 62.14 22.00 0.43×
MANBAManba Finance Limited Financial Services ₹143.37 -1.39% 70 55.01 45.27 0.35×
YUKENYuken India Limited Engineering & Capital Goods ₹1,162.50 -0.56% 69 58.51 17.56 0.15×
THOMASCOTTThomas Scott (India) Limited Textiles ₹288.95 +1.37% 69 58.40 44.95 0.19×
MENONBEMenon Bearings Limited Auto ₹311.10 +12.64% 68 60.62 19.46 10.27×
KMEWKnowledge Marine & Engineering Works Limited Shipping & Ports ₹3,224.00 +4.17% 68 55.29 15.14 0.48×
CNLCreative Newtech Limited Trading & Distribution ₹1,150.80 +3.48% 67 54.46 17.95 0.69×
SHIVAUMShiv Aum Steels Limited Trading & Distribution ₹541.05 -0.78% 66 56.75 24.85 0.45×
MRPLMangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited Oil & Gas ₹177.47 +2.49% 65 52.87 28.71 0.56×
ARISArisinfra Solutions Limited Infrastructure ₹140.35 +0.85% 65 52.42 15.02 0.65×
PATANJALIPatanjali Foods Limited FMCG ₹369.00 +1.14% 64 53.35 19.96 1.17×
PDSLPDS Limited Trading & Distribution ₹349.70 +5.76% 63 54.49 16.66 1.48×
AAREYDRUGSAarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Limited Pharma ₹108.95 +2.53% 63 55.72 15.08 1.02×
TATACOMMTata Communications Limited Infrastructure ₹1,755.50 +4.78% 62 57.43 18.68 0.59×
LLOYDSMELloyds Metals And Energy Limited Metal ₹1,825.10 -0.01% 61 51.36 14.06 0.51×
IPCALABIPCA Laboratories Limited Pharma ₹1,949.90 +1.15% 61 53.52 15.12 0.87×
3 · Backtest — Nifty 50 stocks since 2014
1,727
Trades
38.8%
Win rate
+1.15%
Average trade
1.54
Profit factor
15.7d
Avg holding
+2.1%
Median CAGR / stock
Buy & hold +16.1%
-32.5%
Median max drawdown
Buy & hold -53.7%
18.7%
Time in market
2.0%
Stocks where it beat B&H

🛡️ Robustness — Squeeze percentile

The published rule uses 20. If the edge vanishes one step either side, it was probably fitted to history.

Squeeze percentileTradesWinAvg tradePFMedian CAGR
15145338.3%+1.11%1.52+1.8%
20172738.8%+1.15%1.54+2.1%
30208738.6%+1.03%1.47+1.9%

Robust The average trade is positive at every tested setting. Profitable average trade in 69.2% of years with 5+ trades.

📅 By year (walk-forward view)

YearTradesWinAvg trade
201412345.5%+3.49%
201511534.8%+0.13%
201613342.1%+1.13%
201713748.9%+1.79%
201811242.9%+2.01%
201912536.0%-0.82%
202012343.9%+1.94%
202118045.0%+3.38%
202214429.2%-0.81%
202316043.8%+3.26%
202413033.8%+0.32%
202515024.0%-1.13%
20269532.6%-1.09%
Most recent trades in the test
StockEntryExitReturn
ADANIPORTS2026-10-302026-11-02 (open)-1.11%
CIPLA2026-11-022026-11-02 (open)+0.09%
DRREDDY2026-10-272026-11-02 (open)+2.32%
ETERNAL2026-10-302026-11-02 (open)+1.87%
INFY2026-10-152026-11-02 (open)+5.43%
LT2026-10-292026-11-02 (open)+3.26%
TCS2026-10-142026-11-02 (open)+9.79%
TECHM2026-10-162026-11-02 (open)+4.17%
ETERNAL2026-09-222026-10-01-6.44%
HDFCBANK2026-09-222026-10-01-4.31%
TATASTEEL2026-09-242026-10-01-2.24%
APOLLOHOSP2026-09-242026-09-30-5.56%
MAXHEALTH2026-09-102026-09-28-2.70%
COALINDIA2026-09-032026-09-21-2.64%
APOLLOHOSP2026-09-102026-09-16-2.91%
4 · Risk

Direction of the expansion is unknown in advance; false breaks back into the range are common.

Test assumptions: long only, one position per stock, next-open fills, 0.2% round-trip cost, split-adjusted prices without dividends, current Nifty 50 members (survivorship bias). Past results do not predict future returns.

5 · Test it on any stock

Open the AI Backtester with these rules pre-filled, pick a stock and a date range, and add your own stop-loss or target.

Buy when close rises above the upper Bollinger Band (20, 2) while the previous day's upper band was within 5 percent of the middle band. Sell when close falls below the 20-day SMA.
🧪 Backtest on any stock Open the entry in the screener
🔗 Other breakout strategies
Donchian 55/20 BreakoutMomentum Breakout20-Day High Breakout50-Day High BreakoutVolume Surge Breakout

⚠️ Educational technical analysis computed automatically from end-of-day NSE prices — not investment advice. Flash Finance is not SEBI-registered. Indicators describe what price has done; they do not predict what it will do. Verify levels on a live chart and manage risk before acting.

⚠️ How this site is made: Market data pages are computed automatically from NSE/BSE publications and company filings; news articles and announcement analyses are written with AI assistance, with a human in the loop: our editors review what the AI produces. Both can contain errors. Verify with the original sources before any investment decision. Not investment advice; Flash Finance is not SEBI-registered. How we use AI